Thread by @jseldin

Happening now: Senate Armed Services Committee Worldwide Threats hearing...

Testimony from @ODNIgov Dir Avril Haines & @DefenseIntel Dir Lt Gen Scott Berrier

SASC Chairman @SenJackReed on US intelligence sharing in #Russia-#Ukraine war:

"Intelligence officials are understandably cautious about revealing hard-won insights on adversaries, but this strategy has proven highly effective..."

"...This is a great example of competing effectively in the information domain, and I hope we will continue to make use of this kind of creative tradecraft" per @SenJackReed

"The Chinese threat is beyond anything we've ever dealt w/before" per SASC Ranking Member @JimInhofe in his opening statement

"#Putin's unprovoked agression against #Ukraine shows the danger posed by the nuclear armed #Russia..." he adds, also citing dangers from #Iran #ISIS

#Russia-#Ukraine: "The next month or 2 of fighting will be significant" per @ODNIgov Dir Avril Haines

Even if Russia is successful in reinvigorating its efforts, "we are not confident that the fight in the #Donbas will effectively end the war"

NEW-US intel believes #Russia's #Putin will not be content w/a victory in just eastern #Ukraine

"We assess Pres. #Putin is preparing for prolonged conflict in #Ukraine during which he still intends to achieve goals beyond. the #Donbas" per @ODNIgovs Haines

"We assess that Pres. Putin's strategic goals have probably not changed, suggesting he regards the decision in late March to refocus Russian forces on the #Donbas as only a temporary shift to regain the initiative after the #Russia|n military's failure to capture #Kyiv" - Haines

#Putin's "near-term" objectives are to capture #Donetsk #Luhansk oblasts "with a buffer zone" per @ODNIgov's Haines

Putin also wants to encircle #Ukraine forces form the north & the south to the west of the #Donbas "in order to crush the most capable & well-equipped #Ukrainian who are fighting to hold the line in the east, per @ODNIgov's Haines

NEW: "We also see indications that the #Russia|n military wants to extends the land bridge [in #Crimea] to #Transnistria" per @ODNIgov's Haines

"While the #Russia|n forces may be capable of achieving most of these near-term goals in the coming months, we believe that they will not be able to extend control over a land bridge that stretches to #Transnistria & includes #Odesa without launching some form of mobilization"

NEW: "Increasingly unlikely" #Russia will be able to extend control over #Donetsk #Luhansk oblasts & buffer zone in coming weeks, per @ODNIgov's Haines

#Putin's calculus - "Putin most likely also judges that #Russia has a greater ability & willingness to endure challenges than his adversaries" per @ODNIgov's Haines "He is probably counting on US & EU resolve to weaken as food shortages, inflation, energy prices get worse"

NEW: US intel sees little hope for #Russia-#Ukraine talks to bear fruit

"As both Russia & Ukraine believe they can continue to make progress militarily, we do not see a viable negotiating path forward, at least in the short term" per @ODNIgov's Haines

.@ODNIgov's Haines call #Russia invasion of #Ukraine a "war of attrition," warns "#Putin faces a mismatch between his ambitions & Russia's current conventional military capabilities"

"The next few months could see us moving along a more unpredictable & potentially escalatory trajectory" per @ODNIgov's Haines on #Russia-#Ukraine

"At the very least, we believe the dichotomy will usher in a period of more ad hoc decision-making in #Russia..." per @ODNIgov's Haines

"The current trend increases the likelihood that Pres #Putin wil turn to more drastic means..."

"Drastic means" could include imposing martial law, reorienting production means or "potentially escalatory military actions" to free up resources, per @ODNIgov's Haines

NEW: @ODNIgov's Haines warns of "likely flashpoints" in coming weeks as #Russia tries to interdict Western security assistance to #Ukraine, retaliation for sanctions

"We believe that #Moscow continues to use #nuclear rhetoric to deter the #UnitedStates & the West from increasing lethal aid..." per @ODNIgov's Haines

US warns of escalated #Russia #nuclear saber rattling

"If #Putin perceives the #UnitedStates is ignoring his threats, he may try to signal to Washington the heightened danger of its support to #Ukraine by authorizing another large #nuclear exercise..." per @ODNIgov's Haines

"... involving a major dispersal of mobile, intercontinental missiles, heavy bombers, strategic submarines" per @ODNIgov's Haines

#Russia - #nuke authorization?

"We otherwise continue to believe that Pres. #Putin would only authorize the use of nuclear weapons is he perceived an existential threat to the Russian state or regime" per @ODNIgov's Haines

But "with tensions this high there's always an enhanced potential for miscalculation, unintended escalation, which we hope our intelligence can help to mitigate" per @ODNIgov's Haines

re #Russia #Ukraine #nuclear

"#Russia|n military capabilities have been used to violate the sovereignty & integrity of #Ukraine, & they pose an existential threat to US national security & that of our allies" per @DefenseIntel's LtGen Berrier

Sanctions impact on #Russia - "We expect their GDP will fall, about 10%, possibly even more, over the course of the year" per @ODNIgov's Haines

"The majority of the #Russia|n ppl continue to support the special military operation" per @ODNIgov's Haines "I think, frankly, it's just very hard for information to get into Russia, to the Russian ppl"

#China learning from #Russia-#Ukraine?

"It's going to take some time for them to sort out all elements of diplomatic information, military, economic that has occurred w/this crisis" per @DefenseIntel's LtGen Berrier

"I think they're [#China] thinking about future operations probably against #Taiwan & how difficult that might be" per @DefenseIntel's LtGen Berrier

"They're probably also thinking abt the scrutiny they would come under..."

#Russia-#cyber?

#Moscow has attacked #Ukraine in cyberspace, aimed at some command&control, per @ODNIgov's Haines

"We have not seen the level of attacks...that we expected" she says, suggesting there could be concerns about collateral damage, need to maintain access for intel

#ISIS families in #Syria IDP camps-"Do we have a strategy on how to deal w/it?" asks @SenatorShaheen

@DefenseIntel LtGen Berrier: "We have an intelligence collection strategy to monitor it"

#Afghanistan-terror-"I am more concerned about #ISIS-K in Afghanistan & the fact that they have had some successful & catastrophic attacks...does not portend well for the future" per @DefenseIntel LtGen Berrier

"#alQaida has had some problems w/reconstitution, leadership & to a degree I think the #Taliban have held to their word abt not allowing al-Qaida to rejuvenate" per @DefenseIntel LtGen Berrier

"But its something that we watch very very carefully"

NEW: #China nuclear forces expected to keep going past 1,000 warhead threshold

"It is my assessment that they would continue to develop the weapons they have" per @DefenseIntel LtGen Berrier

MORE: #China-nuclear

"Our assessment basically says that China will continue to essentially expand their nuclear arsenal & diversification for a period of time" per @ODNIgov's Haines

"It's unclear for how long that will be"

#ISIS-#Khorasan - US assesses ISIS' #Afghanistan branch could reconstitute external attack capabilities in "probably a year, slightly longer" per @DefenseIntel's LtGen Berrier

#alQaida in Afghanistan would take longer, he says

#Russia-#Ukraine war - "We're at a bit of a stalemate" per @DefenseIntel LtGen Berrier

Asked by @SenTomCotton which side -#Russia or #Ukraine- is more likely to be able to mobilize trained & motivated troops, @DefenseIntel LtGen Berrier says #Ukraine

"If #Russia doesn't declare war & mobilize, the stalemate's going to last for a while" per @DefenseIntel LtGen Berrier

"If they do mobilize & they do declare war, that will bring thousands of more soldiers to the fight..."

"...& even tho they may not be as well trained & competent, they will still bring mass & a lot more ammunition" per @DefenseIntel LtGen Berrier

NEW: Between 8 and 10 #Russia|n generals have been killed in #Ukraine, per @DefenseIntel LtGen Berrier

US intel says unlikely #Putin ready to start using tactical nukes

"Right now, we do not see that" per @DefenseIntel LtGen Berrier, calling it something US very focused on

"We're supporting #Ukraine but we also don't want to ultimately end up in World War III & we don't want to have a situation in which actors are using nuclear weapons" per @ODNIgov's Haines

"Our view is...there is not a sort of imminent potential for #Putin to use nuclear weapons' per @ODNIgov's Haines

"We perceive that...as something he is unlikely to do unless there is effectively an existential threat to his regime..."

"There are a lot of things that he [#Putin] would do in the context of escalation before he would get to a nuclear weapons" per Haines

Says there would also likely be more signaling from #Putin first

US intelligence can't say if #Russia blames the US specifically for #Ukraine's ability to sink its ships

"We haven't seen..." indications of such, per @ODNIgov Haines

US intel mis-estimation of #Russia's military might

"What we did not see from the inside was this sort of hollow force, lack of NCO corps, lack of leadership training, lack of effective doctrine" per @DefenseIntel LtGen Berrier

"Those are the intangibles we've got to be able to get our arms around" per @DefenseIntel LtGen Berrier on US intel about #Russia's military

US assessment of #Ukraine forces-"In closed briefings we talked abt this capacity to fight" per @DefenseIntel LtGen Berrier, defending assessments #Russia could win quickly

"But there was never an intelligence community assessment that said Ukrainians lacked the will to fight"

"As we've watched the #Russia|ns falter here & the losses that they've sustained, we believe they're going to be set back conventionally for a number of years" per @DefenseIntel LtGen Berrier

#Russia-"The overall threat level has not so much changed as it is the question of how its evolving" per @ODNIgov's Haines

"Ground combat forces have been degraded considerably. It's going to take them years to basically manage, to the extent that they're able, to rebuild that"

"That may end up mean that they [#Russia] have greater reliance in effect on asymmetric tools" per @ODNIgov's Haines "They may rely more on things like #cyber #nuclear precision. That's obviously a shift in the way in which the way they are exercising their efforts for influence"

#Russia-#Ukraine impact on #China-#Taiwan

"The IC has not assessed the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to accelerate their [#Beijing's] plan vis a vis Taiwan" per @ODNIgov's Haines