Here are a few slides I sent the guys by way of a pre-amble:
For all the blithe talk about #EnergyTransition, the blunt truth is that civilisation runs on hydrocarbons. Remove the latter and the former falls, too.

Even the food we eat requires them. We have not improved the living standards of all our teeming billions on the quasi-Neolithic methods of farming so beloved of the ignorant #Green metromarxists.

But who wants to discuss THAT when we can all Ooh! and Aah! at the ongoing #Tech-#memestock-#crypto collapse instead??

As for rising prices, it's going to take a LOT to get Pandora to lock the nasties back in her accursed box - as #JeromePowell, almost alone of all his hapless peers, seems slowly to have realised.

#FederalReserve #inflation

Regarding #bond #yields, as Bagehot famously said: "John Bull can stand much. But he cannot stand 2%", though HE meant no-one could survive, investing sanity intact, if they were that LOW!


Not investment advice, etc, etc.

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More from @CantillonCH

May 13
The world today🧵
The US is a bankrupt liberal arts college being run into the ground by sophomore, social studies snowflakes while the frat boys have broken into the arms locker and are shooting up the neighboutrhood, The Dean, meanwhile, can't remember where he put his glasses.
Europe: a weird mix of eager Bonapartism & a Judaean suicide cult from the 'Life of Brian'.
Worsula Fonda-Lyin' as Agrippina: Verhofstadt as Saint Just.

Gutting its own economy but now presuming to re-order the Pacific as well as poking the Bear on its (ever-expanding) borders
China: Seemingly gripped with #ZeroCovid insanity but with what hidden motives? A way of disguising credit bubble implosion? #Xi's battle with #Jiang's #Shanghai Gang? A hybrid war ploy to weaken a West lining it up in the crosshairs, post-#Putin?

Read 8 tweets
Feb 13
All you pointy-head PhD types and other academics now issuing mea culpas for ‘not understanding’ the #inflation dynamic: we warned you from the very off that more $$ + less supply + capital destruction/impairment would only NOT lead there if the QE/fiscal flood ...
..held perforce partly in abeyance, were later, upon cessation of ‘house arrest’, used to pay down debt & so self-extinguish itself.

If that unlikelihood did NOT eventuate - if Hyper-#QE were not terminated/reversed -how was the present bleak situation NOT to be foreseen??

As for the belated recognition that the disease has now metastasized to a wide range of raw inputs & production goods -increasingly to now-operative services as well as classic #inflation outlets- we were emphasising this well over a year ago while you were all “#transitory
Read 6 tweets
Jan 19
Thanks to @GeoffCutmore, @cnbcKaren & the #SquawkBox team for having me on this morning's show.

We discussed #bonds & #centralbanks, touched on #supplychains & talked of #Growth's vulnerability, #commodities' appeal.

Slide deck follows:-

Is your box still backed up in port? How much does the onward haulage cost? What happens to #freight rates after #LNY/#Beijing2022?
The bet is that #energy cannot *possibly* rise as far and fast this year as last, but what about all the other inputs? To what extent are these and other costs yet to be passed on?


Read 15 tweets
Jan 14
Alternatively, ask how the vast monetary overhang, created over the past two years, is going to be dissipated.

If not frozen in place as savings, or used to pay down debt, or miraculously promoting new production, it will continue to raise prices until its real value levels out.
Unspoken in that last is the added complication that the rising tide will NOT lift all boats at once. Cantillon effects will create undeserving winners. Relative price distortions will misdirect capital & effort. Secondary credit booms(& busts) will be seeded.
Additionally, policy responses will typically aggravate the disease. Taxes, subsidies, price caps, rationing - all are likely PLUS a fisc so readily backstopped by the CB will plug budget gaps with MORE money creation & also try to buy off unemployment waves. Vicious circle time.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 16, 2021
Many thanks to my old friend @steve_sedgwick & @SquawkCNBC for having me on this morning.
What did we talk about? What else but #inflation & the #Fed & the outook for next year?

This 12-tweet thread will post the slides I prepared for the show:-

Like all crimes, #inflation needs means, motive & opportunity. Here's a lttle of the second:-

As for means? Well...

Read 13 tweets
Nov 24, 2021
If you’d wanted the independent thinkers, the freedom lovers, those sceptical of state action & distrustful of its corporate cronies, to reveal themselves so that they could vilified, segregated, punished -and possibly culled- you couldn’t improve on this whole #COVID19 theatre
The constant lies; the imposition of one failed measure after another; the *repetition* & reinforcement of those errors; the ever-lengthening time-scale over which they’ll be imposed; the ineffective genetech; the “Plague of the Unspiked” Big Lie -
- the looming, lifetime injections, the passes, the media witch-hunts: all carefully calculated to provoke the Tall Poppies to present their fragile stems to the neo-feudalist, techno-fascist blade being wielded by the #Davocracy’s venal -or vicious- host of societal Reapers -
Read 5 tweets

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