How to get the #grain out of #Ukraine?
The West has feasible options to challenge #Putin's #HungerPlan & avoid a #globalfamine.
Check out my latest piece at @TransitionsMag & see key arguments below THREAD 1/11
@gmfus
tol.org/client/article…
2/11
#Ukrainian defensive minefields around #Odessa & the #Russian #SeaBlockade are the two key challenges to establishing a secure sea lane for 🇺🇦 #grain export.
3/11
Concerning the first one, the requirements of safe shipping through minefields and effective #CoastalDefense are not incompatible, and a mine-free shipping channel to #Odessa would not seriously compromise the port's defence against #Russian #amphibious operations.
4/11
Concerning #Russian #NavalBlockade, the key of #Ukrainian grain export through #Odessa is not free passage for 🇺🇦 ships through the blockade, but the deployment of neutral merchant vessels.
5/11
Based on the customary international law of sea blockades, neutral merchants may be investigated by #Russian naval forces, but shall be able to continue their journey to #Odessa, if they are not transporting #contraband.
6/11
Loaded with 🇺🇦 grain and heading toward a neutral port, the ships even cannot be investigated by the #Russians after leaving #Ukrainian ports.
7/11
It is unlikely, that #Russia would be ready to en masse capture neutral merchant ships, among them US and European ones, with a grave violation of #International Law for two good reasons: it would pose a serious threat of escalation &
8/11
would clearly undermine the #Russian narrative that the West is responsible for the evolving #GlobalFamine.
9/11
For the detailed legal & security arguments and the different scenarios how #Russia may react on such a Western strategy, check out the piece in detail.
tol.org/client/article…
10/11
In the piece, I use the historical analogy of #Haiphong from the #VietnamWar. And my main argument is that Western allies have to do no more and no less than what the SovietUnion China & WarsawPact countries, but also West Germany & the United Kingdom did during that war
11/11
The West shall make use of the #FreedomofNavigation and send neutral ships to the port of the besieged nation. This time, to Odessa.

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More from @DanielHegedus82

May 6
Long THREAD on the potential #Hungarian #veto of the #SixthSanctionPackage @gmfus
1.
As I highlighted in this previous piece of mine, it is not a surprise that #Orbán is tying the question of #RussiaSanctions to the #RuleOfLaw conditionality regulation ...
tol.org/client/article…
2.
and the suspended #RecoveryFunds.
#Orbán just repeats his strategy he pursued with success in case of the 2020 EU budget blockade.
He is aware of the fact that due to his rampage in EU politics he has lost nearly all of his persuasive and negotiation power,
3.
hence he has to operate with coercion. This is not the first time #Hungary is taking EU decision making as hostage, and not even the last one if #Orbán once again is allowed to succeed with his #blackmailing.
Read 18 tweets
Mar 9
.@SecBlinken refuses #Polish proposal that the #US should transfer 🇵🇱 #Mig29s to #Ukraine.
In light of the #Fulcrum limbo of the past days I would like to reiterate that it is possible to reinforce Ukrainian #airdefence in another ways. @gmfus
THREAD 1/12
edition.cnn.com/2022/03/08/pol…
2/12
As I argued a couple of days ago, the transfer of Soviet-era air superiority fighters from #NATO stocks could be an important symbolic move, but they are not the ideal #airdefence assets under the given circumstances. Arguments below 👇
3/12
#Ukrainian ground based #airdefence systems have been really successful over the past 13 days. Even if the transfer of fighter planes is a no go, SAM systems with #Russian origin still in service in NATO countries could be potentially delivered to #Ukraine.
@ukraine_world
Read 13 tweets
Dec 5, 2021
Great to see the growing opposition in #Israel to the acquisition of #satellite operator #Spacecom by #4iG, owned by #Orbán's strawman #LőrincMészáros.
THREAD 1/4
haaretz.com/israel-news/.p…
2/4
There appears to be a growing pattern that #Orbán allies look for investment opportunities in the high-tech end of the international defence & security sector. (See the case of #AeroVodochody and its Hungarian investors)
reuters.com/article/uk-aer…
3/4
While acquiring lucrative foreign investments (which the seriously indebted #Spacecom is not) might be a logical strategy for a #corrupt #RentSeeking elite, like the circles of #Orbán, there is definitely more behind this story.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 5, 2021
What is in the background of the #Lega-#PiS fallout?
THREAD 1/6
#Lega is divided on the question what should be the party's future direction. There is a growing support for heading to #EPP, which puts pressure on @matteosalvinimi, who is otherwise very pragmatic in this question.
2/6
So #Salvini has more options and leeway than his #RadicalRight counterparts, but he also needs palpable results what he can present for his constituency.
#Lega
3/6
Allegedly there was an agreement between #Lega & #PiS (or at least that was Lega's communication in the 🇮🇹 media) that #PiS and some of its #ECR allies will join #ID, and that will be the formal and procedural way to forge a single new #RadicalRight political group in the 🇪🇺.
Read 6 tweets
Dec 4, 2021
European #RadicalRight jamboree soon resumes in #Warsaw, without @matteosalvinimi & his #Lega. Maybe I am wrong, but considering the recent fallout between the host #PiS & #Lega, it is rather unlikely that today's meeting will result in anything else than #PR pure.
THREAD 1/3
2/3
The union of European #RadicalRight doesn't appear to be an actual political reality and showcasing close coordination and joint plans for the future is perhaps more difficult for #Lega, #RN, #PiS, #Fidesz & #FratellidItalia than ever since 2019.
3/3
IMHO we won't see similar multilateral gatherings of leading #RadicalRight parties for a while. The main reason that #LePen & #Orbán are present is face saving to avoid the public perception of a total collapse of cooperation.
Read 7 tweets
Nov 27, 2021
On a leaked audio recording, chairman of the #Hungarian parliament #KövérLászló calls 🇭🇺opposition the most significant #NationalSecurity threat the country is facing and asks the 🇭🇺 domestic intelligence agency to mitigate this threat. (THREAD 1/5)
444.hu/2021/11/27/kov…
2/5
#Kövér addressed the leadership of the domestic intelligence/counter-intelligence agency #AVH in February 2020.
3/5 This piece of information may shed new light on the #PegasusAffair in 🇭🇺 & raises the impression that #IntelligenceAgencies may be systematically used by the incumbent #OrbanRegime in #Hungary to conduct surveillance of the #DemocraticOpposition, independent journalists ...
Read 7 tweets

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