How to get the #grain out of #Ukraine?
The West has feasible options to challenge #Putin's #HungerPlan & avoid a #globalfamine.
Check out my latest piece at @TransitionsMag & see key arguments below THREAD 1/11
@gmfus
tol.org/client/article…
The West has feasible options to challenge #Putin's #HungerPlan & avoid a #globalfamine.
Check out my latest piece at @TransitionsMag & see key arguments below THREAD 1/11
@gmfus
tol.org/client/article…
2/11
#Ukrainian defensive minefields around #Odessa & the #Russian #SeaBlockade are the two key challenges to establishing a secure sea lane for 🇺🇦 #grain export.
#Ukrainian defensive minefields around #Odessa & the #Russian #SeaBlockade are the two key challenges to establishing a secure sea lane for 🇺🇦 #grain export.
3/11
Concerning the first one, the requirements of safe shipping through minefields and effective #CoastalDefense are not incompatible, and a mine-free shipping channel to #Odessa would not seriously compromise the port's defence against #Russian #amphibious operations.
Concerning the first one, the requirements of safe shipping through minefields and effective #CoastalDefense are not incompatible, and a mine-free shipping channel to #Odessa would not seriously compromise the port's defence against #Russian #amphibious operations.
4/11
Concerning #Russian #NavalBlockade, the key of #Ukrainian grain export through #Odessa is not free passage for 🇺🇦 ships through the blockade, but the deployment of neutral merchant vessels.
Concerning #Russian #NavalBlockade, the key of #Ukrainian grain export through #Odessa is not free passage for 🇺🇦 ships through the blockade, but the deployment of neutral merchant vessels.
5/11
Based on the customary international law of sea blockades, neutral merchants may be investigated by #Russian naval forces, but shall be able to continue their journey to #Odessa, if they are not transporting #contraband.
Based on the customary international law of sea blockades, neutral merchants may be investigated by #Russian naval forces, but shall be able to continue their journey to #Odessa, if they are not transporting #contraband.
6/11
Loaded with 🇺🇦 grain and heading toward a neutral port, the ships even cannot be investigated by the #Russians after leaving #Ukrainian ports.
Loaded with 🇺🇦 grain and heading toward a neutral port, the ships even cannot be investigated by the #Russians after leaving #Ukrainian ports.
7/11
It is unlikely, that #Russia would be ready to en masse capture neutral merchant ships, among them US and European ones, with a grave violation of #International Law for two good reasons: it would pose a serious threat of escalation &
It is unlikely, that #Russia would be ready to en masse capture neutral merchant ships, among them US and European ones, with a grave violation of #International Law for two good reasons: it would pose a serious threat of escalation &
8/11
would clearly undermine the #Russian narrative that the West is responsible for the evolving #GlobalFamine.
would clearly undermine the #Russian narrative that the West is responsible for the evolving #GlobalFamine.
9/11
For the detailed legal & security arguments and the different scenarios how #Russia may react on such a Western strategy, check out the piece in detail.
tol.org/client/article…
For the detailed legal & security arguments and the different scenarios how #Russia may react on such a Western strategy, check out the piece in detail.
tol.org/client/article…
10/11
In the piece, I use the historical analogy of #Haiphong from the #VietnamWar. And my main argument is that Western allies have to do no more and no less than what the SovietUnion China & WarsawPact countries, but also West Germany & the United Kingdom did during that war
In the piece, I use the historical analogy of #Haiphong from the #VietnamWar. And my main argument is that Western allies have to do no more and no less than what the SovietUnion China & WarsawPact countries, but also West Germany & the United Kingdom did during that war
11/11
The West shall make use of the #FreedomofNavigation and send neutral ships to the port of the besieged nation. This time, to Odessa.
The West shall make use of the #FreedomofNavigation and send neutral ships to the port of the besieged nation. This time, to Odessa.
@MFA_Ukraine @ukraine_world @StateDept @IVejvoda @JoergForbrig @JonDKatz @JEyal_RUSI @fromTGA @thorstenbenner @wprzybylski @MiriamKosmehl
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