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Jul 20 8 tweets 4 min read
It’s Wednesday, which means it’s time to take stock of the week so far, draw on reserves, and soldier on (and uncover some facts while at it). Today, we dissect the RBI’s recent move to allow & encourage #foreigntrade payments to be made in INR. (1/8)
It’s a long-term plus for the Indian #economy and good news for the long-term investor. So, grab that coffee from the break room, and let’s delve into the long and short of it. (2/8)
The #RBI recently issued a circular that detailed an ‘additional arrangement’ for invoicing, payment, and settlement of #exports and #imports using the Indian #rupee as currency. (3/8)
What that means is that Indian #importers can now make payments in rupees against invoices for the supply of goods or services from #overseas sellers. Meanwhile, Indian exporters will be paid in rupees from the balances of the partner country. (4/8)
How will this work? Well, these arrangements largely work out based on the relationship between India and the country we are buying or selling from. As they say, relationships are at the heart of everything. (5/8)
Essentially, this move will make the medium of exchange the rupee instead of the #dollar. That plan makes sense (and cents) because we might have bang for the proverbial buck right now, but dollar reserves are a limited supply. (6/8)
Not just that, we are dependent on imports for a lot of things, with most of our problems in this area stemming from #oil imports. So far, this has had a major impact on our foreign policy around sensitive issues like #Russia. (7/8)
The truth is that, till we go green in a real way, we’ll need to somehow pay for our oil. RBI’s move is helping with that. Trade in rupees reflects an adaptive, foresighted central bank, and helps us build up a dollar reserve, which is never a bad thing. (8/8)

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More from @scripbox

Jul 21
Your trusty ‘ol #EPFO (Employees' Provident Fund Organisation) has decided that they need more #equity in their investment #portfolio. This matters because of the sheer size of the corpus at EPFO’s disposal. (1/6)
Increasing allocation to equities will allow EPFO subscribers to participate in the #stockmarket materially. The large corpus under the EPFO will also raise the demand for equity and bring in added #liquidity. This is good for #Indian investors’ equity wealth. (2/6)
Currently, the EPFO can invest between 5% to 15% of their investible deposits in equity or equity-related instruments. They want to bring this number up to 20%. (3/6)
Read 6 tweets
Jul 19
If #retirement is on the list of #goals you’re investing for, should the current high #inflation lead to any change in your plans? Here’s our take: (1/5)
If annual inflation is at 7%, monthly #expenses of Rs 50,000 per month today, would become Rs 1.9 lakhs per month, in 20 years. At 5% inflation, it would become only Rs 1.3 lakhs per month. It’s best to overestimate, err on the side of caution and invest accordingly. (2/5)
At the same time, it doesn’t help to panic and look only at the short term. Just stick to your #assetallocation, and continue your SIPs. If you think your #SIP investments won’t take you closer to your retirement goal, consider increasing allocation to equity MFs. (3/5)
Read 6 tweets
Jul 13
While the pictures from the #WebbSpace Telescope have transfixed everyone with an interest in outer space, back on planet earth, investors are fixated on #recession. We looked at the history of recessions and found some interesting facts. Here’s the lowdown: 1/7
There have been 12 official recessions. On an average, they happen about every 6.5 years. The average period of #recession lasts about 10 months. But the ones in 1973, 1981, & 2007 lasted for well over a year. 2/7
Before the #pandemic, the deepest recessions that saw #GDP decline by more than 3%, started in 1957 (tightening of monetary policy), 1973 (stagflation, oil embargo) and 2007 (global financial crisis). 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Jul 12
As the world watches the Twitter vs #ElonMusk saga unfold, and questions, “What is happening?”, let’s take look at a question that’s been on many investors’ minds for a while - “What does #assetallocation actually mean, and why should I care?” (1/6)
The short answer (within 280 characters), is that asset allocation divides your investments across different asset classes like #equity, debt, #gold etc., in order to achieve a specific investment goal, at a certain growth rate. (2/6)
Why is this necessary? For starters, it ensures that you stay invested for the duration needed, while also helping you decide how much you should invest in sub-asset classes like #large-cap or #mid-cap equity, low duration funds or liquid funds. (3/6)
Read 6 tweets
Jul 12
Many investors are wondering if they should shift their #equitymutualfund SIPs to debt investment options, as they watch the markets stew in #volatility. Well, we crunched some numbers and here’s what we think: (1/5)
Shifting #SIP investments to debt products temporarily provides capital protection, but also results in poor yields. You might end up with a smaller corpus, if you follow this strategy. (2/5)
On the other hand, persisting with equity mutual fund SIPs, even if markets are down, pays off over the long term. So far, market growth after dips tends to make up for the crashes. (3/5)
Read 6 tweets
Jul 11
Today is #WorldPopulationDay, which reminds us that while #ElonMusk is determined to contribute to increasing the population, he has also managed to upset the existing one, by backing out of the Twitter deal. Good thing that the markets were more stable, than Musk’s mood. 1/7
Talking about the “impending recession” seems to be the trend. So, it was a surprise last week, when both the #Sensex & the #Nifty went ↑ by almost 3%. Potential reasons? Maybe the cooldown in the prices of #commodities. This helps sectors like #Auto, #Realty, & #FMCG. 2/7
So naturally, both the #NiftyFMCG & #NiftyRealty were ↑ over 5%. #NiftyAuto was also ↑ 3.5%. In fact, every sectoral index was painting the town green. Global indices were also mostly up. The S&P 500 was ↑ 1.94% & the #NASDAQ100 ↑ by 4.6%. 3/7
Read 7 tweets

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