Thread by @Cicke69

by @ASBmilitarynews

Analysis of current military situation in Ukraine

This analysis will touch up on commonly discussed topics around the Russian Military Operation in #Ukraine, from both sides of the conflict.

#Thread #ukrainerussiawar
1/

1. #Russia - #Iran

Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir #Putin arrived in Iran to meet with the Supreme Leader of Iran and the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

2/

According to public information and statements released, the meeting focused on economic and industrial relations between the two countries, specifically in the energy sector. There was no public mention of a military component being discussed.

#Russia #Iran
3/

This of course begs a question:
Will #Iran provide #Russia with drones?
Currently, there's no conclusive evidence that such deal was made between Iran and Russia. However,if there was,it would not be public information. All information on this topic is therefore speculation.
4/

How would #Iranian drones change the battlefield?

Over the span of the last few weeks, #Ukrainian Armed Forces started using the #USA/#NATO supplied MLRS HIMARS. The #HIMARS system is a precision guided rocket artillery multiple launch system with very high precision.

5/

According to the Financial Times, #USA has provided #Ukraine with 1/3rd of its own stockpile of missiles for the #HIMARS system. This is estimated to be around 6.000 rockets.
#UkraineRussiaWar
by @ASBmilitarynews
6/

On average, 1 to 3 HIMARS rockets are fired on each target with 1/3rd of them being intercepted. This means there are potentially around two to three thousand Russian Military targets that the #HIMARS system can strike. This is a problem for the #Russian Military.

7/

From ASB's understanding, #HIMARS system is closely guarded by the #USA to ensure #Russians don't get their hands on it. Every strike is therefore calculated and an escape route for the HIMARS system (highly mobile) is predetermined and preset before each strike takes place
8/

In order for #Russia to target these systems and destroy them, they need to have attack drones on standby.

There are claims of #HIMARS systems being struck by Russian forces with corresponding footage to these claims (to one of them)
9/

However, the footage is inconclusive at best, the system cannot be clearly identified from the provided footage. It loosely resembles the claims, but it cannot be 100% confirmed from the footage.
#ukrainerussiawar
by @ASBmilitarynews
10/

#Russia was slow to adopt #drone warfare within its military due to disagreements in the industrial and manufacturing sector; as we understand it.

11/

As previous footage released from #Ukraine showed, #Russian attack drones, specifically the Kronshtadt Orion — are highly precise systems with basically pin-point accuracy strikes.

12/

However, #Russia fields these in limited numbers. These systems use Russia's latest control systems which they cannot afford to risk falling into #NATO's hands; therefore their use is limited on the battlefield.

13/

With #Iranian drones, this is a different story. Iranian drones are reverse engineered #USA military drones that #Iran has previously hacked, downed and captured from the #Americans.

#Ukrainerussiawar
14/

There's nothing in these drones the #Americans aren't aware of as they're basically built on their tech and research.

In conclusion, #Iran providing #Russia with drones does make sense.

#UkraineRussiaWar
by @ASBmilitarynews
15/

2. Tactics, Losses, Predictions
#UkraineRussiaWar
Soften up, disperse and move in:

In the early days of the #Russian Special Military Operation in #Ukraine, Ukrainians had great success with artillery strikes on Russian positions.

by @ASBmilitarynews
16/

#Russians took losses as they attempted to attack #Ukraine on multiple fronts using mainly public roads due to unfavorable weather/soil conditions and lack of coordination (possibly due to split command).

#ukrainerussiawar
17/

This means that #Russian military was inevitably traveling in pretty large groups and concentrating in one spot. This tactic did not pay off for the Russians in the initial stages of the operation and was subsequently restructured.

#ukrainerussiawar
18/

This is where the 'Soften up, disperse and move in' tactic comes in.

After the #Russians carried out restructuring in #Ukraine, Russian military quickly destroyed Ukrainian artillery capability in devastating numbers.

#ukrainerussiawar
19/

#Ukrainian artillery posts were decimated with heavy saturation artillery attacks. Now, the Ukrainians are heavily outgunned and have a very hard time dealing with #Russian artillery supremacy.

Russian military uses this supremacy to its advantage.
#Ukrainerussiawar
20/

First, #Ukrainian strongholds are softened up with heavy artillery attacks with focus on inflicting heavy casualties on Ukrainian brigades and positions. Ukrainian brigades are taking horrific losses in terms of manpower.
#ukrainerussiawar
21/

We're talking 30 to 60 percent reduction in each #Ukrainian brigade that comes under #Russian attack.
This is simply a nightmare for the Ukrainians.

In comparison, in #NATO doctrine, a five percent reduction of a brigade immediately renders it combat ineffective.

22/

If we are talking 60 percent reduction, this basically means that only the chefs, officers and higher-ups survive.
As we have observed in past offensives by the #Russians in #Ukraine, this tactic works effectively.
23/

When #Ukrainian brigades suffer such losses, they have to rotate their forces. #Russian Forces capitalize on this. During the rotation period, Russia pushes in and Ukrainian defense falls; allowing the Russians to move in and capture their positions with minimal resistance.

24/

This approach is slow and steady. #Russian Forces have greatly reduced their losses using this tactic. It would not be very smart in strategic terms to storm Ukrainian positions.#Ukrainian Military has sizable ground forces and can deal damage to Russians and their equipment.
25/

3. Ukrainian tactics and successes:

One thing that is often misunderstood is Ukraine's intention and "strategy"
#Ukraine does not particularly prioritize recapturing territory from #Russia.

by @ASBmilitarynews
26/

#Ukraine's main objective is to deal as much damage to the Russians as possible, to kill as many #Russian troops as possible and to destroy as much Russian hardware and strategic capability as they can.

#ukrainerussiawar
27/
washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/…

#Ukraine's hopes are that #Russians will be rendered combat ineffective and withdraw, especially in the south.

Ukraine has been successful with its #HIMARS precision strikes onto Russian military warehouses; in particular, Russian ammo-depots.

#ukrainerussiawar
28/

In previous days, sometimes more than 3 warehouses were struck in a single day. #Russia was not prepared to deal with #MLRS saturation attacks in previous days.

This is where the Russian air defense restructuring came in.
#Ukrainerussiawar
29/

During the last 3 days, #Ukrainian success with targeting high value #Russian targets has died down. Whether this is due to the reactive actions of Russian military or due to some other factor -- we'll have to wait and see.

#ukrainerussiawar
30/

#Ukrainian claims of #Russian losses:

Ukrainian Officials update Russian losses on a daily basis. New numbers are published each morning. But that is where it ends -- that is all they provide; numbers.

31/

There's no information to where these losses occurred, which brigade, area, method - nothing. Their numbers come from thin air.
#Russian-claimed losses of #Ukrainian forces are always detailed and correspond to activity observed in pictures, videos and situational reports.

32/

They always include the precise location of where these losses occurred and how they were struck. This is then followed by visual evidence in form of videos and pictures of fires, smoke, or straight up missile impacts -- which is not the case with #Ukrainian claims.

33/

Therefore, we ( @ASBmilitarynews ) consider #Ukrainian claims inconclusive and don't report on them.

When will Ukrainian military collapse under such heavy losses amongst its brigades?

This is a hot topic amongst our readers and basically anyone watching the situation.
34/

The reality is that no army in the world can sustain losses of 30 to 60 percent in its brigades week by week, sometimes multiple times a week. However, #Ukrainian defense is not going to collapse as easily as you might think it would.

#ukrainerussiawar
35/

#Ukraine is #Europe's largest military (beside #Russia). They have a lot of personnel and are mobilizing the public.

You can now observe women on the front lines as well as older men and civilians with no military experience.

36/

#Ukrainian professional army is being used tactically while territorial defense and soldiers with minimal experience are being used to basically halt the #Russians while the professional army attempts to carry out sabotage missions, target Russian high-value targets, etc.
38/

We will see localized collapse of #Ukrainian military. Our prediction is in #Kharkov.
When Kharkov falls, Ukrainian defense in the area and beyond will collapse. The same story will repeat after Kharkov and the next big town. Localized collapses is what we're likely to see.
39/

With winter coming, the odds are in #Russia's favor. Reduced visibility and dense fog are typical for southern #Ukraine -- which favors the attacker as the defender basically cannot see across straights.
The typical visibility during summer months is around 10 to 18KM.
40/

When fog comes in, you are basically blind as the defender. We don't expect any huge offensives to take place during the upcoming winter months, but the #Russians are bound to achieve success in areas that are hard to attack at the moment across flat landscape.
#WarInUkraine
41/

by @ASBmilitarynews

42/42