Jeff Seldin Profile picture
Jul 22 13 tweets 10 min read
NEW: #Ukraine-"It was the assessment of the American intelligence community...#Russia would be significantly more capable & significantly more successful on the battlefield" White House Nat'l Security Adviser @JakeSullivan46 tells #AspenSecurity
"In fact, #Russia was not able to acheive the basic strategic objectives that Pres. #Putin set out" per @JakeSullivan46

#Ukraine "won the battle of #Kyiv, they beat Russia back from #Kharkiv, they stopped Russia from being able to make a bum's rush to #Odesa"
"Now we're in a circumstance where #Russia is facing significant difficulties constituting th kind of force necessary for them to achieve the objectives which have not fundamentally changed" per @JakeSullivan46
"That has been an enormous credit to the bravery & skill of the #Ukrainian military..." per @JakeSullivan46

"It also a credit to the fact that we have provided an enormous amount of weaponry and training...to give Ukraine the ability to achieve those military successes"
"We want to see a sovereign, independent, viable #Ukraine that emerges proudly from this & can repel any future #Russia|n aggression" per @JakeSullivan46

"What exactly the terms of any diplomacy are...that is for the Ukrainians to determine"
"We have staying power" per @JakeSullivan46 re those who think the West will lose interest or resolve in backing #Ukraine
"We blv it is our strategic objective to ensure that #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine is not a strategic success for #Putin, that it is a strategic failure" per @JakeSullivan46

"That means both that he be denied his objectives in Ukraine & that Russia pay a longer term price..."
US wants #Putin "be denied his objectives in Ukraine & that #Russia pay a longer term price in terms of the elements of its nat'l power so that the lessons that goes forth to would be aggressors elsewhere is if you try things like this it comes a a cost that is not worth bearing"
"Do I believe that we have under supplied the #Ukrainian military? I do not" per @JakeSullivan46

"I believe that the speed, scope & scale of US military assistance to #Ukraine is an absolute testament to the logistical capacity of the US military..."
"...& honestly to the surprising political capacity of the US Congress to come together on a bipartisan basis & put forward the resources to get this done" per @JakeSullivan46
NEW: US will not provide #Ukraine with "long range missiles, #ATACMs, which have a range of 300 kilometers bcs [@POTUS] does believe...we do not end up in a circumstance where we're heading down a road to a 3rd world war" per @JakeSullivan46
US concerned abt safety of #Ukraine's President @ZelenskyyUa - "This is a leader in wartime dealing w/an opponent, an adversary, an enemy in #Russia that is ruthless, brutal & capable of just about anything" per @JakeSullivan46
"Part of our objective in #Ukraine has to be able to show, strength, resilience, staying power, canniness, capability bcs that will have some impact on our ability to deter others elsewhere" per @JakeSullivan46

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More from @jseldin

Jul 22
NEW: #Ukraine unleashing "very precise, very accurate" targeting of #Russia , per senior defense official

"They're paying a high price" official says of #Russia, saying its forces suffering "low morale"
On the new $170 million drawdown/aid package -"The capabilities in this package are going to be useful on the battlefield immediately" per senior US defense official

That include the #Himars, more artillery ammo
580 #PhoenixGhost drones that will be procured - "steady deliveries" will begin in August, per senior US defense official
Read 23 tweets
Jul 22
BREAKING: US announces new, $270 million security package for #Ukraine, per @WHNSC's John Kirby

Includes 4 more #HIMARS "which the #Ukrainians have been using very effectively", 36k rounds of artillery ammo, some anti-armor systems

Also includes 580 #PhoenixGhost drones
"We'll have more packages of aid [for #Ukraine] to announce in the weeks and months to come" per @WHNSC's John Kirby
White House praises grain deal signed Friday but cautions "success of course is going to depend on #Russia's compliance w/the agreement" per @WHNSC's John Kirby
Read 9 tweets
Jul 22
"We used to always talk about super powers & I think we now live in a world where we need to talk about cyber powers" @Microsoft President & Vice Chair @BradSmi tells #AspenSecurity

"2 of the great #cyber powers in the world are #Russia & #China..."
"The United States is the strongest #cyber power of all" per @Microsoft's @BradSmi

"But what we're fundamentally seeing is #Ukraine in particular is Russia use its very sophisticated cyber capabilities to do 3 things..."
"One is support an invasion, including w/destructive cyber attacks" per @Microsoft's @BradSmi

"The 2nd is do what the #Russian gvt does year-in, year-out, which is very broad-based espionage & hacking, both of gvt & pvt sector"
Read 10 tweets
Jul 22
#Drone threat to the US - "We [US] have to think abt whether or not humans will remain in the kill chain bcs some of our adversaries have decided they will not & that the targeting will be done much quicker" House Intel Comm.'s @RepJasonCrow tells #AspenSecurity
Threat to US from drones-"How do we stop those drones before they ever launch?" asks @USSOCOM Commander Gen. Richard Clarke tells #AspenSecurity

"The cost for entry...is very very low" he says, adding there also needs to be discussion of norms for use of drones
#Chemcial-#Biological threat to US significant, even from non-state actors - "It's pretty simple to do" per @USSOCOM's Gen Clarke
Read 15 tweets
Jul 21
"#Iran is threatening the other countries as much as it is threatening the State of #Israel" Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz tells #AspenSecurity

"Iran is a global challenge. You can see it in #Venezeula. You can see it in South #Africa, in South America... #Nigeria"
#Israel-#Ukraine - "Israel is definitely on the Western side. Israel is definitely on the #Ukrainian side" per DefMin Gantz

"We are supporting it in all the diplomatic measures. We are supporting it w/all the humanitarian aid...We have opened a field hospital"
Why not more for #Ukraine? "We do have our operational considerations" per #Israel's Gantz

"We are sharing an aerial border w/the #Russia|ns above #Syria ... so we have other calculus that we have to take into mind"
Read 7 tweets
Jul 21
NEW: 15,000 #Russia|n soldiers killed in #Ukraine - estimate given by @CIA Dir William Burns Wednesday - "probably a conservative estimate" #Britain's @ChiefMI6 Richard Moore tells #AspenSecurity
NEW: #Russia in #Ukraine: "I think they're about to run out of steam" per @ChiefMI6

"Our assessment is that the Russians will increasingly find it difficult to supply manpower, materiel over the next few weeks"
Inevitable #Russia|n pause - "That will give #Ukrainians the ability to strike back" per @ChiefMI6
Read 20 tweets

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