As #Kissinger shouted at 1969 football game, "On what theory?"
nytimes.com/1970/02/19/arc…
An alternative possibility—the "Ducks in a Row" approach:
Ambitious but failure averse, #Xi faces strong incentives to max forces before attempting one of (recent) history's greatest gambles.
nytimes.com/1970/02/19/arc…
An alternative possibility—the "Ducks in a Row" approach:
Ambitious but failure averse, #Xi faces strong incentives to max forces before attempting one of (recent) history's greatest gambles.
https://twitter.com/BonnieGlaser/status/1553478583204474880
"Ducks in a Row" model ≠ theoretical speculation.
#Xi himself has charged #PLA w/ achieving 2027 "Centennial #Military Building Goal" (#建军一百年奋斗目标).
DoD: "this would provide Beijing w/ more credible military options in a #Taiwan contingency."
>>andrewerickson.com/2021/12/prc-pu…
#Xi himself has charged #PLA w/ achieving 2027 "Centennial #Military Building Goal" (#建军一百年奋斗目标).
DoD: "this would provide Beijing w/ more credible military options in a #Taiwan contingency."
>>andrewerickson.com/2021/12/prc-pu…
"Ducks in a Row" model allows ZERO room for complacency.
#Xi may well PREFER +-5 years more #PLA prep to attempt max-stakes mark on #history.
But many factors now in play, stakes high, margins thin.
#PRC rhetoric re @SpeakerPelosi trip suggests growing tensions moving forward.
#Xi may well PREFER +-5 years more #PLA prep to attempt max-stakes mark on #history.
But many factors now in play, stakes high, margins thin.
#PRC rhetoric re @SpeakerPelosi trip suggests growing tensions moving forward.
"Ducks in a Row" ≠ "good news" model of relief—
rather of relentless ramp-up as #Xi attempts to max #PLA capabilities vs. #Taiwan amid #peaking of his personal & #PRC's relative power.
During "#DecisiveDecade"/"#DecadeOfMaxDanger" it's coming to a head: bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…
rather of relentless ramp-up as #Xi attempts to max #PLA capabilities vs. #Taiwan amid #peaking of his personal & #PRC's relative power.
During "#DecisiveDecade"/"#DecadeOfMaxDanger" it's coming to a head: bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…
During 2020s, #Xi is likely to make catastrophic move against #Taiwan—IF he calculates probability of success sufficiently high.
To protect US interests, regional security & rules-based international order, US/Allies must IMMEDIATELY mobilize resources to #deter #PRC aggression.
To protect US interests, regional security & rules-based international order, US/Allies must IMMEDIATELY mobilize resources to #deter #PRC aggression.
>>> In athletic terms, the US & its Allies must now marshal their efforts & focus to "#peak" near-term capabilities & maximize their strategic impact—
—by innovatively employing assets that currently exist or can be operationally assembled & scaled within the next several years.
—by innovatively employing assets that currently exist or can be operationally assembled & scaled within the next several years.
Drawing on #Ukraine's experience, US & #Taiwan must max invest immed.—particularly targeting 8 key areas—to make #TW tougher to EVER invade, even harder to subdue & harder still to occupy + govern:
warontherocks.com/2022/04/eight-…
A dragon-choking #porcupine, saved by geography & A2/AD.
warontherocks.com/2022/04/eight-…
A dragon-choking #porcupine, saved by geography & A2/AD.
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