Thread by @Charles_Lister

Wow -- #Zawahiri killed in a U.S. drone strike in the #Kabul area over the weekend -- the 1st strike since the #Taliban's takeover of #Afghanistan in August 2021.

BIG blow for #AlQaeda's central leadership, but huge questions about how he was located (or who sold him out).

https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1549394685671653376

In Nov 2020, I wrote about #AlQaeda's looming "succession crisis" -- as the group's most likely No.2 (Sayf al-Adel) is based in #Iran, a location that for most AQ affiliates, has resulted in deep distrust.

jihadica.com/al-qaedas-lead…

AQ's decentralization will only increase now.

For years, #AlQaeda has been under a self-reinforcing process of decentralization (& localization) -- whereby the central leadership remained a key guide, but an increasingly irrelevant source of strategic command.

More on that, in this lengthy piece:

hudson.org/research/15533…

This is reportedly an image from the scene of the strike, in #Kabul's Sherpur neighborhood.

The apparent lack of explosive damage may suggest the U.S. used an R9X 'flying ginsu' missile, which is inert & carries self-deploying blades to kill a target with no collateral damage.

R9X missiles have been deployed a number of times by JSOC in NW #Syria to target senior #AlQaeda figures -- they're extraordinarily precise & have worked to great effect until now.

See here, for example, from June 2020.

I've not seen one used on a building before, though.

Sources in #Afghanistan are now confirming -- this building in which #Zawahiri was killed was owned by Sirajuddin Haqqani, whose son & son-in-law also died in the strike.

Stunning. He's the #Taliban's de facto deputy leader.

NEW -- some fresh thoughts & analysis on the death of #AlQaeda leader Ayman al-#Zawahiri in a U.S. drone strike in #Kabul.

In short: a massive CT victory for the #Biden admin; with profound consequences for #Afghanistan & for AQ's agenda worldwide.

mei.edu/publications/s…

#Biden confirms strike killed #AlQaeda leader #Zawahiri on Saturday -- "he carved a trail of murder & violence against American citizens, diplomats, and interests."

NEW -- #Zawahiri was located in #Kabul "earlier this year" when he moved there "to be with his family."

The strike was approved a week ago. No civilian casualties.

NEW -- senior #Biden admin officials now saying that #Haqqani Network leaders were aware of #Zawahiri's presence in #Kabul.

Immediately after the strike, #Haqqani operatives sealed off the area & relocated #Zawahiri's relatives.

A damning indictment of #Taliban credibility.

No doubt, killing #Zawahiri is a big win for #Biden & a major achievement for the U.S. & allies.

BUT let's take a breath -- the leader of #AlQaeda was being harbored *by the #Taliban* in *the capital* of #Afghanistan.

Not exactly a reassuring signal of what's to come.

Senior #Biden admin official:

For several years, U.S. intel was aware of a network supporting #Zawahiri.

Earlier this year, intel located #Zawahiri’s wife & children in #Kabul, then tied #Zawahiri to that same location.

Senior #Biden admin official:

Senior #Haqqani figures were aware of #Zawahiri’s presence in #Kabul -- “That’s a big deal… They own this.”

After the strike, there was a concerted effort to restrict access to the site. #Zawahiri’s wife & children were moved to a new location.

Senior #Biden admin official:

#Zawahiri produced multiple videos at the location in #Kabul — further video releases (recorded pre-death) wouldn't be a surprise.

Dialogue with the #Taliban will continue — it has done in the intervening days — to ensure they abide by #Doha deal.