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Today I want to put into perspective the Ukraine counter-offensive with the whole strategic picture of the #SMO. Thereby I will discuss potential goals of #Ukraine and possible consequences, executed by #Russia.
I want to start my analysis with two quotes.
#Kiev #Donbass
Today I want to put into perspective the Ukraine counter-offensive with the whole strategic picture of the #SMO. Thereby I will discuss potential goals of #Ukraine and possible consequences, executed by #Russia.
I want to start my analysis with two quotes.
#Kiev #Donbass
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Quote 1 from Clausewitz: "War is the continuation of politics by other means".
Quote 2 from Scott Ritter: "By not losing, #Ukraine is winning this war. By not achieving the stated goals, #Russia is losing this war".
Keep this in mind during the reading of my analysis.
Quote 1 from Clausewitz: "War is the continuation of politics by other means".
Quote 2 from Scott Ritter: "By not losing, #Ukraine is winning this war. By not achieving the stated goals, #Russia is losing this war".
Keep this in mind during the reading of my analysis.
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What could be the political goals of #Ukraine (its Western backers)? To survive as a state, that has borders as close as possible to #Moscow and other big #Russia|n cities. (As we all know, the West gives a shit about Ukraine, its people and economy etc.)
#Kiev #NATO #Donbass
What could be the political goals of #Ukraine (its Western backers)? To survive as a state, that has borders as close as possible to #Moscow and other big #Russia|n cities. (As we all know, the West gives a shit about Ukraine, its people and economy etc.)
#Kiev #NATO #Donbass
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What could be the political goals of #Russia in this campaign in #Ukraine? 1) Bringing back Russian land and people under one state. 2) Create the strategic buffer/depth and distance between #NATO and big Russian cities. (I won't go here deeper in this issue).
#Kiev #Donbass
What could be the political goals of #Russia in this campaign in #Ukraine? 1) Bringing back Russian land and people under one state. 2) Create the strategic buffer/depth and distance between #NATO and big Russian cities. (I won't go here deeper in this issue).
#Kiev #Donbass
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If #Ukraine holds on long enough and denies #Russia to achieve its goals, then this could be considered as intermediate victory for The West, even though, as we know, there will be some quarter million, or even half a million dead Ukrainians. From my point of view Ukraine
If #Ukraine holds on long enough and denies #Russia to achieve its goals, then this could be considered as intermediate victory for The West, even though, as we know, there will be some quarter million, or even half a million dead Ukrainians. From my point of view Ukraine
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could achieve this intermediate victory, by delaying #Russia|n breakthrough in #Donbass, and the subsequent large scale offensive operations on open land to the #Dniepr. Or respectively to #Nikolayev/#Odessa. Delaying it until winter. Why winter? Because in winter
could achieve this intermediate victory, by delaying #Russia|n breakthrough in #Donbass, and the subsequent large scale offensive operations on open land to the #Dniepr. Or respectively to #Nikolayev/#Odessa. Delaying it until winter. Why winter? Because in winter
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#Russia won't be able to execute large scale broad offensives, without suffering huge causalities. (Yes, they can, but they would pay heavily with men and equipment. Compare the start of the SMO in this February). If #Ukraine manage to delay the offensive until the start of
#Russia won't be able to execute large scale broad offensives, without suffering huge causalities. (Yes, they can, but they would pay heavily with men and equipment. Compare the start of the SMO in this February). If #Ukraine manage to delay the offensive until the start of
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of winter, then I assume that #Russia won't be able to take on the bigger Ukrainian cities west of #Donbass. This would be a first victory for #Ukraine which can be presented to The West. During this pause Ukraine can be re-equipped and defensive positions built on the
of winter, then I assume that #Russia won't be able to take on the bigger Ukrainian cities west of #Donbass. This would be a first victory for #Ukraine which can be presented to The West. During this pause Ukraine can be re-equipped and defensive positions built on the
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potential attack vectors. #Russia would re-start its large scale offensive in spring or maybe even in summer 2023. Which would make it harder for Russia, because of the time for preparations. I personally don't think, that Russia is willing to conduct a winter offensive, like
potential attack vectors. #Russia would re-start its large scale offensive in spring or maybe even in summer 2023. Which would make it harder for Russia, because of the time for preparations. I personally don't think, that Russia is willing to conduct a winter offensive, like
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she did in February and March 2022. It was a massacre against Russian troops with huge casualties among men (dead and captured) and equipment. But still normal under the circumstances of an large scale offensive in winter. So, nothing unusual, but still difficult to explain
she did in February and March 2022. It was a massacre against Russian troops with huge casualties among men (dead and captured) and equipment. But still normal under the circumstances of an large scale offensive in winter. So, nothing unusual, but still difficult to explain
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to the public.
Coming back to #Ukraine's currently ongoing "counter-offensive" in #Kherson and #Kharkov I want to put things into perspective. From my point of view the aim is, to delay #Russia as much as possible, with its preparations for the offensive of its strike groups,
to the public.
Coming back to #Ukraine's currently ongoing "counter-offensive" in #Kherson and #Kharkov I want to put things into perspective. From my point of view the aim is, to delay #Russia as much as possible, with its preparations for the offensive of its strike groups,
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due to concentration of defensive forces and maneuvers. Moreover I assume, that #Ukraine's actual goal was, to capture the #Kakhovka reservoir, to again cut of water supply to Crimea, during winter. (I might be wrong, but that is my assumption. That is something, that could
due to concentration of defensive forces and maneuvers. Moreover I assume, that #Ukraine's actual goal was, to capture the #Kakhovka reservoir, to again cut of water supply to Crimea, during winter. (I might be wrong, but that is my assumption. That is something, that could
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have been achieved, with the available forces and technology, if #Ukraine hadn't tell the whole world months in advance what its plans was. Even though I don't see a chance anymore, for a success of the Ukrainian counter offensive, it still is massive. The only reason it
have been achieved, with the available forces and technology, if #Ukraine hadn't tell the whole world months in advance what its plans was. Even though I don't see a chance anymore, for a success of the Ukrainian counter offensive, it still is massive. The only reason it
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it fails, is due to the lack of technology (air force, stand off weapons, artillery etc.). I also want to warn you, to brag, about how this offensive is nothing and easy fend off etc. Daily hundreds of allied troops dying in fending it off. (Yes, as opposed to thousands on
it fails, is due to the lack of technology (air force, stand off weapons, artillery etc.). I also want to warn you, to brag, about how this offensive is nothing and easy fend off etc. Daily hundreds of allied troops dying in fending it off. (Yes, as opposed to thousands on
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the attacking side). It would be a massive lack of respect, against those fallen allied troops, to laugh it off. Moreover my heart bleeds, even though I absolutely recognize, that it is mandatory to do) for this slaughter of the #Ukraine|ian population. Those are only Nazi
the attacking side). It would be a massive lack of respect, against those fallen allied troops, to laugh it off. Moreover my heart bleeds, even though I absolutely recognize, that it is mandatory to do) for this slaughter of the #Ukraine|ian population. Those are only Nazi
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minded #Russia|ns on Russian land (so called #Ukraine). The West has triggered a Russian civil war and every casualty is a win for the West, on both sides. It is a tragedy, and Russia will not forget it, as she will make decisions, going forward.
Okay, I want to summarize
minded #Russia|ns on Russian land (so called #Ukraine). The West has triggered a Russian civil war and every casualty is a win for the West, on both sides. It is a tragedy, and Russia will not forget it, as she will make decisions, going forward.
Okay, I want to summarize
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for now: #Ukraine is trying to delay #Russia into the winter and to cut off Crimea water supplies, once again. This would be a huge intermediate victory.
Next.
Russia didn't state any timelines for victory, so delaying the operation into the next year, wouldn't be a defeat,
for now: #Ukraine is trying to delay #Russia into the winter and to cut off Crimea water supplies, once again. This would be a huge intermediate victory.
Next.
Russia didn't state any timelines for victory, so delaying the operation into the next year, wouldn't be a defeat,
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but certainly nothing good, as well.
I personally don't think, that #Ukraine will have success. I assume, that the counter offensive could be crushed by #Russia until the beginning or the mid of October. And then there would still be time for a offensive operation,
but certainly nothing good, as well.
I personally don't think, that #Ukraine will have success. I assume, that the counter offensive could be crushed by #Russia until the beginning or the mid of October. And then there would still be time for a offensive operation,
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at least to free #Donbass, maybe even to reach the #Dniepr. Most likely the offensive will even start during #Ukraine's current offensive efforts.
I see four possible directions for the upcoming #Russia|n offensive.
A) A counter offensive in the #Kherson front, as soon as
at least to free #Donbass, maybe even to reach the #Dniepr. Most likely the offensive will even start during #Ukraine's current offensive efforts.
I see four possible directions for the upcoming #Russia|n offensive.
A) A counter offensive in the #Kherson front, as soon as
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#Ukraine's offensive loosing steam. With forces, to be accumulated west of the #Dniepr river with the established pontoon crossings. Direction #KrivyRog.
B) Offensive from #NovaKakhovka in the direction of #Nikopol and then #Zaporozhye. Potentially also arrows to A.
#Ukraine's offensive loosing steam. With forces, to be accumulated west of the #Dniepr river with the established pontoon crossings. Direction #KrivyRog.
B) Offensive from #NovaKakhovka in the direction of #Nikopol and then #Zaporozhye. Potentially also arrows to A.
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A and B are crucial because #Russia has massive forces and established crossings over the #Dniepr. #Ukraine is still considering the #Dniepr as a fence against Russians attacks from the #Donbass direction. With A and B, they could take the big cities in #Zaporozhye and
A and B are crucial because #Russia has massive forces and established crossings over the #Dniepr. #Ukraine is still considering the #Dniepr as a fence against Russians attacks from the #Donbass direction. With A and B, they could take the big cities in #Zaporozhye and
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#Dnepropetrovsk into a pincer from both sides of the river.
C) When #Russia finishes #Pisky and the #Donetsk ring road, I can imagine, that this staging area would be sufficient for a shock army, to break through the further un- or less defended open areas between Donetsk and
#Dnepropetrovsk into a pincer from both sides of the river.
C) When #Russia finishes #Pisky and the #Donetsk ring road, I can imagine, that this staging area would be sufficient for a shock army, to break through the further un- or less defended open areas between Donetsk and
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#Dnepropetrovsk/#Zaporizhzhya. And meet there up with arrow B.
D) I can imagine further pinning operations, to stretch #Ukraine's resources and supply chains, by #Russia expanding offensive operations around #Kharkov and re-enter the area of #Sumy from the Russian border.
#Dnepropetrovsk/#Zaporizhzhya. And meet there up with arrow B.
D) I can imagine further pinning operations, to stretch #Ukraine's resources and supply chains, by #Russia expanding offensive operations around #Kharkov and re-enter the area of #Sumy from the Russian border.
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In total, I see those four big arrows in preparations. Whether they really will be executed, and when and how... I don't know. I only assume, that the current actions by #Ukraine have the goal, to delay those operations as long as possible, to flee into the winter.
#Russia
In total, I see those four big arrows in preparations. Whether they really will be executed, and when and how... I don't know. I only assume, that the current actions by #Ukraine have the goal, to delay those operations as long as possible, to flee into the winter.
#Russia
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Again, I don't think, that winter is an obstacle. I only think, that #Russia would, out of political considerations, avoid a large scale winter offensive, because of the expected large casualties. Out of domestic reasons. Which makes absolutely sense :)
Again, I don't think, that winter is an obstacle. I only think, that #Russia would, out of political considerations, avoid a large scale winter offensive, because of the expected large casualties. Out of domestic reasons. Which makes absolutely sense :)
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Moreover I see now the first potential breaking point for the Ukraine army. As my followers know, I often point the the potential point, where the resistance simply will break and #Russia could more or less easily march trough #Ukraine. This currently ongoing
Moreover I see now the first potential breaking point for the Ukraine army. As my followers know, I often point the the potential point, where the resistance simply will break and #Russia could more or less easily march trough #Ukraine. This currently ongoing
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"counter-offensive" by #Ukraine could be the first chance for #Russia, to trigger the collapse. If Ukraine commits most of its trained troops and most of its equipment, then Russia will have the first unique chance. Following Sun-Tzu (Art of War), this would be the point for
"counter-offensive" by #Ukraine could be the first chance for #Russia, to trigger the collapse. If Ukraine commits most of its trained troops and most of its equipment, then Russia will have the first unique chance. Following Sun-Tzu (Art of War), this would be the point for
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#Russia, for large scale push, to overrun, what is still left and achieve the final victory. This could take place within months. I'm not saying it WILL happen. But this is the first chance, to achieve final victory for Russia.
Let's wait an see.
#Ukraine #Donbass #Kiev
#Russia, for large scale push, to overrun, what is still left and achieve the final victory. This could take place within months. I'm not saying it WILL happen. But this is the first chance, to achieve final victory for Russia.
Let's wait an see.
#Ukraine #Donbass #Kiev
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