Kyle Orton Profile picture
Sep 19 36 tweets 21 min read
Thread: 19 September 2022: Day 208 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: "#Russia has highly likely lost at least four combat jets in #Ukraine within the last 10 days", a total of 55 since the invasion began. A "realistic possibility" this is because Moscow has stepped up airstrikes, and still lacks air dominance. Image
The "refusenik" problem within the #Russian Army is clearly at an operationally significant level.
#pt: Russia now has a formalised stamp for the "refuseniks" in the Army, which is a telling sign of how big a problem this is.
This 👇🏼👇🏼 Be interesting to know if #China's government has taken this lesson from #Russia - that what it believes it has on paper bears little resemblance to what exists at the ground level.
"No reason to panic!", says #Russia, this time about the #Ukrainian guerrilla operations within the occupation zones.
A fundraiser for a #Ukrainian family in a terrible situation: what might seem like an insignificant amount makes a real difference.

If you don't have money to spare, if you could help spread this around, that would be great. mycause.com.au/p/294703/help-…
The legitimate Governor of Luhansk Oblast, Serhiy Haidai, reported yesterday that 200 Russians were killed in an explosion at a former bus station building that was serving as a barracks in Svatove. facebook.com/permalink.php?…
Thread on the happenings in the Caucasus and Central Asia as the states realise #Russia's power is hollow.
Wounded #Ukrainian soldiers have been being treated in #Germany.
Most multinationals remain in Russia and fund Putin’s invasion of Ukraine atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…
Interesting that some of the HIMARS strikes seem to have been in reality MARS 2 - and that #Germany seems to be shaping up.
If this can't get the attention of #Finland's Prime Minister @MarinSanna, impossible to see what would.

Do check out @SignMyRocket to send your own message.
#Ukraine has many advantages now, and the trendlines are all that this will only get worse for #Russia.
#Russia struggling even to defend its Telegram channels
#Russia's energy giant Gazprom is being asked to help supply medical equipment to the Russian Army.
#Russia's offensive capacity has essentially been neutralised; the focus is now entirely defensive as #Ukraine builds up for further operations to liberate the occupied zones.
Notable: the #US has been brought in to mediate the #Armenia-#Azerbaijan dispute over the Karabakh, despite all the efforts of #Russia (and #Turkey) to squeeze the Americans out. Not a spent superpower yet.
Again, #Russian television is a little behind the times: the Russian Army has been operating "barrier troops" in #Ukraine for some time.
Germany to Deliver Four More Howitzers to Ukraine - German Defence Ministry usnews.com/news/world/art…
Having tried to recruit from the prisons, #Russia now looks to the schools.
Turkish lender Isbank suspends use of Russia's Mir payment system reuters.com/business/finan…
Baltic states and Poland close doors to Russian tourists reuters.com/world/europe/b…
Head of #Russia's RT, Olga Skabeyeva, says ATACMS have been given to #Ukraine, and this justifies strikes on European states.
The nominal head of "the Donetsk People's Republic" Denis Pushilin telephones the nominal head of "the Luhansk People's Republic" Leonid Pasechnik, part of the stage show as #Russia prepares to "annex" the Donbas in eastern #Ukraine.
#Putin's warlord-president of #Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, restates that he views the war on #Ukraine is a holy war.
#Russia's puppet "republic" in Luhansk has sentenced two @OSCE_SMM employees, Maxim Petrov and Dmytro Shabanov, to thirteen years in prison for "treason" after a show trial.
#US considering sending more modern tanks to #Ukraine.
Vladimir Osechkin, the founder of the #Russian human rights project Gulagu.net, was nearly assassinated in #France, in the city of Biarritz. "[H]e happened to notice the red dot from the sight of the assassin’s gun on the wall next to him." meduza.io/en/news/2022/0…
"In October 2021, Osechkin ... obtained over 40 gigabytes of video, text, and photo evidence of widespread torture use in Russian prisons. The videos' publication sparked an uproar and caused a number of prison officials to lose their jobs."
#Ukraine's HIMARS/etc. strikes on #Russian bases and weapons depots over the last week clearly concentrated on the Kherson front but extending pretty widely along the line of contact in the Donbas.

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More from @KyleWOrton

Sep 21
Thread: 21 September 2022: Day 210 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
The former rector of the Moscow Aviation Institute, Anatoly Gerashchenko, had a "tragic accident" on Sept. 21, he "fell" - indeed, "flew" - down several flights of stairs and "received injuries incompatible with life". moscow-post.su/news/society/b…
#Putin's delayed speech, delivered this morning, rambled through the war being necessary to stop #Ukraine having nukes, #NATO running Kiev's army and refusing peace, Novorossiya, neo-Nazis, and annexing the Donbas, to announce partial mobilisation.
Read 51 tweets
Sep 20
Thread: 20 September 2022: Day 209 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
#Russia "officially" preparing to "annex" the Donbas in eastern #Ukraine.

Should be noted, the Russians had such plans in Kherson and Kharkiv, which were derailed by the Ukrainian guerrillas before the Army liberated Kharkiv.
Imprisoned #Russian oppositionist Alexey Navalny comments on that video of Yevgeny Prigozhin recruiting prisoners for the war on #Ukraine. Sees it as a clear sign of the disintegration of the Army and notes such recruits can only make it worse.
Read 53 tweets
Sep 19
The final journey of Her Majesty Elizabeth II, by the Grace of God, Queen of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and of Her other Realms and Territories, Head of the Commonwealth, Defender of the Faith. Image
The Canadian Mounties leading the military contingent from the Dominions in the funeral procession for Queen Elizabeth II. Image
An appropriately grand spectacle for the final journey of the anointed of God. Image
Read 4 tweets
Sep 15
Thread: 15 September 2022: Day 204 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
#Russian soldier talking to his wife is somewhat unimpressed with the commanders and even less impressed with the #Chechen Kadyrovtsy, the "Akhmat", who "fucked off (i.e. ran away), the fucking cowards" as the #Ukrainians closed in.
In #Mariupol overnight, #Ukrainians sang the national anthem in Liberation Square, knowing it can get them arrested and worse by the #Russian occupation authorities in the city. A sense that liberation is coming is spreading.
Read 45 tweets
Sep 14
Thread: 14 September 2022: Day 203 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update notes the confirmation that #Russia is using #Iran's Shahed-136 drones, which have a range of 1,500 miles and were used in the attack on the MT MERCER STREET merchant tanker on 3 July 2021. Seems Moscow is using them for tactical strikes, not long-range.
Talk in #Georgia of opening a second front while #Russia is tied down in #Ukraine to liberate the occupied areas in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

If you want to challenge for Russian-protected territories, now is the moment. (See also: #Azerbaijan.)
Read 59 tweets
Sep 13
Thread: 13 September 2022: Day 202 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia's 1st Guards Tank Army (1 GTA), "one of the most prestigious" units, operating under the Western Military District, "had not been fully reconstituted" before #Ukraine began the #Kharkiv counter-offensive; has now suffered further "heavy" losses. Image
#Russia "recently requested to purchase ammunition for its Uragan rocket artillery from #Tajikistan, along with shells for Pion howitzers and armored personnel carrier (APC) engines." yahoo.com/now/moscow-see…
Read 40 tweets

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