Kyle Orton Profile picture
Sep 21 51 tweets 28 min read
Thread: 21 September 2022: Day 210 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
The former rector of the Moscow Aviation Institute, Anatoly Gerashchenko, had a "tragic accident" on Sept. 21, he "fell" - indeed, "flew" - down several flights of stairs and "received injuries incompatible with life". moscow-post.su/news/society/b…
#Putin's delayed speech, delivered this morning, rambled through the war being necessary to stop #Ukraine having nukes, #NATO running Kiev's army and refusing peace, Novorossiya, neo-Nazis, and annexing the Donbas, to announce partial mobilisation.
#Russia's Defence Minister spoke after #Putin: the upshot is he says 300,000 Russian troops will be raised by "partial mobilisation", which probably isn't true and wouldn't rescue the Russian position if it was, but as a statement is enough to cause panic.
Signs an exodus from Russia has already begun after the announcement of "partial mobilisation" five hours ago
#Russian contract soldiers to have their terms of service extended throughout the partial mobilisation (which has no end date).

Putin is playing with fire here. This will do nothing for Army morale. Puts Russia on a path to mutinies and worse.
Which is quite mad, but this is an ideological war Putin is waging: it will not stop until it is stopped
Glad the #US has dismissed with contempt #Putin's signals about "annexing" areas of eastern #Ukraine to #Russia.
Conscripting people into the ranks as a punishment is doubtless the way to improve the devastated morale of the Russian Army
Such a world clearly cannot function. All of this was hashed out in the Cold War, not that anyone now remembers, nor did it stop the Soviets' sympathisers agitating, as Putin's agents of influence do now, right down to 1991.
The paradox, as in the Cold War, is that the surest way to maintain peace is to be absolutely serious about our willingness to go to war, including nuclear war, with the Russians. The alternative is to allow Moscow's nuclear blackmail card to be a free pass to everything it wants
#Russian ammunition depot in Novoaidar in the Luhansk Oblast gone.
Another #Russian pontoon bridge disaster, somewhere in Kherson
#China clearly is not serious, but interesting to see what they feel a need to say publicly.
After the announced "partial mobilisation", "Russian airlines have stopped selling tickets to Russian men aged 18 to 65 unless they can provide evidence of approval to travel from the Ministry of Defense." airlive.net/breaking-russi…
And that was in a war most #Russians understood, quite correctly, as defending the Empire from an aggressive #Germany, led by a ruler whom most believed God Himself had appointed. Neither form of legitimacy exists now, with the war on #Ukraine.
Protests have erupted across #Russia against the mobilisation, and the crackdown has been as swift and ruthless as ever.
President Biden speaking at the UNGA
Navalny's team pranked the son of Putin's press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, Nikolay, pretending to be a military commissariat calling him up for conscription. He responds: "it is not exactly right for me to be there ... I'll be solving this on another level"
As ever, Navalny's team have a very good feel for what will resonate with Russians.
#Ukraine Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal met with #Britain's Prime Minister @trussliz in New York at the UN meeting yesterday. Shmyhal thanked Truss for the support given so far, and Truss announced $500 million more to purchase gas. kmu.gov.ua/news/denys-shm…
#Lithuania's Rapid Reaction Force has been put on high alert in response to #Russia's "partial mobilisation".
#Russians protesting the "partial mobilisation" in the city where the Bolsheviks murdered their Emperor.
Protests in Saint Petersburg against the "partial mobilisation", at the Cathedral of Saint Isaac. #Russia
Protests against the "partial mobilisation" spread to Moscow.
#Russia's opposition, broken up by arrests and the remainder terrorised into quiet since February, has taken the first chance of an event, the "partial mobilisation", where popular discontent against the regime manifests, to return to the streets, knowing the price. Brave people.
It is not just tactically and morally wrong to dismiss #Russian protests against #Putin; it is analytical malpractice. It misses the complexities behind saying "popular opinion" - a nearly meaningless term even in free countries - supports this war, and the options going forward.
What we know is that there was a massive domestic reaction against #Putin's regime when the war on #Ukraine began, and that this switched - at least in terms of what people were willing to tell pollsters - after a draconian crackdown and saturation of the information space.
It is not to say a majority of #Russians don't passively support the war, if only in the sense that most support their country at war, but it is very different to them agitating for the war and it means this opinion is malleable if Russia is defeated.
#Russians protesting in Moscow directly against #Putin, again knowing how severe the penalties are for such things.
Perhaps not the sturdiest basis for a mobilisation
#Ukraine's First Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs Yevheny Yenin said of the bodies of those murdered by #Russia in #Izyum: "These include broken ribs and cracked skulls, men with bound hands, broken jaws, and severed genitalia." dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…
"[A]nother Kharkiv-like operation could relatively quickly place Ukrainian forces along the Luhansk-Severodonetsk line and effectively force the collapse of Russian forces' willingness and ability to fight in this war. ... [T]ime is now on Kyiv’s side." ridl.io/the-kharkiv-of…
#Ukraine has stopped asking in public for Patriot air defense systems, F-16 fighter jets, and Gray Eagle drones, but behind the scenes is still negotiating with the #US over them. "Both sides are discussing whether to send all three items". politico.com/news/2022/09/1…
That said, the overwhelming impression is of #US foot-dragging.
#Russia has released ten foreign POWs taken in #Ukraine, after mediation by the #Saudis. Those released: two Americans, five British, a Croatian, a Moroccan, a Swede. Seems Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner (UK) and Brahim Saadoun (Morocco) among them. reuters.com/world/europe/r…
#Ukraine flags appearing in #Armenia during protests against CSTO, #Russia's new pseudo-Warsaw Pact.
The citizen from #Sweden captured fighting for #Ukraine, who has been released today after the #Saudis mediated with #Russia
A #Russian citizen in the Arbatskaya area of Moscow, shouts, "No to war!", as he is roughly arrested.
The protests in #Russia today against the regime have been on a large scale.
Interviews by @CurrentTimeTv with #Russians living in the Kaliningrad enclave and Ekaterinburg: many firmly and articulately against the war; those who say they would go to war in #Ukraine look uncomfortable and rely on official talking points.
Via a Russian friend: "Soldier in the reserve"
#Putin has traded 215 #Ukrainian prisoners of war, including the #Azov defenders taken when Mariupol was conquered, for 55 #Russian POWs, including Viktor Medvedchuk, one of Putin's main agents in pre-invasion Ukraine.
#North_Korea has surveyed the situation and decided its reputation - based on a Nazi-ish ideology, nuclear weapons, and the enslavement of a whole people in a giant concentration camp - would be sullied by an association #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Awful video from earlier of police in Moscow beating up an anti-war protester.

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More from @KyleWOrton

Sep 22
Thread: 22 September 2022: Day 211 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: focuses on the announced #Russian "partial mobilisation" yesterday, doubts Moscow can raise 300,000 troops, and notes the "considerable political risk" to #Putin of trying to regenerate manpower for the war on #Ukraine in this way. Image
Read 41 tweets
Sep 20
Thread: 20 September 2022: Day 209 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
#Russia "officially" preparing to "annex" the Donbas in eastern #Ukraine.

Should be noted, the Russians had such plans in Kherson and Kharkiv, which were derailed by the Ukrainian guerrillas before the Army liberated Kharkiv.
Imprisoned #Russian oppositionist Alexey Navalny comments on that video of Yevgeny Prigozhin recruiting prisoners for the war on #Ukraine. Sees it as a clear sign of the disintegration of the Army and notes such recruits can only make it worse.
Read 53 tweets
Sep 19
Thread: 19 September 2022: Day 208 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: "#Russia has highly likely lost at least four combat jets in #Ukraine within the last 10 days", a total of 55 since the invasion began. A "realistic possibility" this is because Moscow has stepped up airstrikes, and still lacks air dominance. Image
The "refusenik" problem within the #Russian Army is clearly at an operationally significant level.
Read 36 tweets
Sep 19
The final journey of Her Majesty Elizabeth II, by the Grace of God, Queen of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and of Her other Realms and Territories, Head of the Commonwealth, Defender of the Faith. Image
The Canadian Mounties leading the military contingent from the Dominions in the funeral procession for Queen Elizabeth II. Image
An appropriately grand spectacle for the final journey of the anointed of God. Image
Read 4 tweets
Sep 15
Thread: 15 September 2022: Day 204 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
#Russian soldier talking to his wife is somewhat unimpressed with the commanders and even less impressed with the #Chechen Kadyrovtsy, the "Akhmat", who "fucked off (i.e. ran away), the fucking cowards" as the #Ukrainians closed in.
In #Mariupol overnight, #Ukrainians sang the national anthem in Liberation Square, knowing it can get them arrested and worse by the #Russian occupation authorities in the city. A sense that liberation is coming is spreading.
Read 45 tweets
Sep 14
Thread: 14 September 2022: Day 203 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update notes the confirmation that #Russia is using #Iran's Shahed-136 drones, which have a range of 1,500 miles and were used in the attack on the MT MERCER STREET merchant tanker on 3 July 2021. Seems Moscow is using them for tactical strikes, not long-range.
Talk in #Georgia of opening a second front while #Russia is tied down in #Ukraine to liberate the occupied areas in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

If you want to challenge for Russian-protected territories, now is the moment. (See also: #Azerbaijan.)
Read 59 tweets

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