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Sep 23

The #Iranian regime has likely deployed its #Artesh Ground Forces to suppress ongoing protests surrounding #MahsaAmini’s death. Here’s why it matters: 1/5

An Iranian official and state-affiliated media confirmed that an Artesh Ground Forces officer died in clashes with protesters in Khorasan Razavi Province, corroborating social media reports that Iranian leadership had deployed the Artesh to crack down on demonstrations. 2/5

The Artesh Ground Forces’ deployment could signal limited bandwidth of other security units—like the #Basij and #LEC—as the regime continues to crack down on nation-wide protests. 3/5

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Sep 22

@TheStudyofWar

#Russian President Vladimir #Putin’s announcement of “partial mobilization” reflected problems Russia faces in its invasion of #Ukraine that #Moscow is unlikely to be able to resolve in the coming months. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…

#Russian forces continued ground attacks on the eastern outskirts of #Bakhmut and against #Avdiivka and continued routine fire along the frontline in #Donetsk Oblast on September 21.

The #Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled an attempted #Russian attack near #Kupyansk, eastern #Kharkiv Oblast, along the #Oskil River.

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Sep 21

Social media reports indicate that protests following #MahsaAmini's death are ongoing and have now occurred in 24 of #Iran's 31 Provinces. A thread: 1/6 #مهسا_امینی #IranProtests #MahsaAminii

[Interactive graphics here: criticalthreats.org/analysis/anti-…]

Footage has shown Iranian protestors chanting anti-regime slogans condemning #MahsaAmini's September 16th death in #Tehran.

Iranian social media users have reported internet connectivity issues in at least 12 of #Iran's 31 Provinces. 3/6

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@criticalthreats

Sep 21

#Russia redeploying its 217th Airborne Regiment from #Syria to #Ukraine is part of a larger months-long drawdown of Russian forces in Syria. newsweek.com/putin-pulling-… 1/7

Moscow faces severe manpower shortages in #Ukraine and is pulling some units from #Syria to inject into the fight. This continuing drawdown is facilitating the expansion of the #Iranian presence in Syria and exacerbating the Iran-Israel escalation cycle. 2/7

#Iran likely seeks to fill the security gap caused by this #Russian drawdown to expand Iranian military influence and maintain stability. 3/7

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Sep 21

@TheStudyofWar

Russian-appointed occupation officials in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts announced on 9/20 that they will hold a “referendum” on acceding to Russia, with a vote taking place from 9/23-27. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…

#Ukrainian forces continued disrupting ongoing #Russian efforts to reestablish ground lines of communications (GLOCs) across the Dnipro River in #Kherson Oblast.

#Russian forces are likely targeting #Ukrainian hydrotechnical infrastructure in #Kharkiv and #Luhansk oblasts to threaten Ukrainian positions along the Siverskyi Donets River.

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Critical Threats

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Sep 20

Footage circulating on social media suggests that protests following #Mahsah_Amini's death have occurred in 19 of #Iran's 31 provinces within the past three days. A thread: 1/5

Protests that were initially concentrated in #Tehran City and throughout #Kurdistan Province – where Amini was from – have since spread nationwide within the past day, reaching historically conservative cities like #Qom. 2/5

Protestors have chanted anti-regime slogans against mandatory veiling and against Supreme Leader #Khamenei's son, #Mojtaba, who some have speculated will succeed his father as Supreme Leader. CTP discusses Mojtaba and succession in a recent update: criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-… 3/5

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