The #Iranian regime has likely deployed its #Artesh Ground Forces to suppress ongoing protests surrounding #MahsaAmini’s death. Here’s why it matters: 1/5
An Iranian official and state-affiliated media confirmed that an Artesh Ground Forces officer died in clashes with protesters in Khorasan Razavi Province, corroborating social media reports that Iranian leadership had deployed the Artesh to crack down on demonstrations. 2/5
The Artesh Ground Forces’ deployment could signal limited bandwidth of other security units—like the #Basij and #LEC—as the regime continues to crack down on nation-wide protests. 3/5
The deployment of the Artesh Ground Forces similarly suggests that the regime views ongoing protests as a credible and serious threat to regime stability. 4/5
The Artesh Ground Forces also participated in repressing the November 2019 gasoline protests. The death of an Artesh GF officer in current demonstrations points to a larger trend line: the forces’ increasingly expanded role in protest suppression over the past several years. 5/5
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Uncorroborated reports suggest that #Iran is mobilizing its proxies to suppress ongoing #MahsaAmini protests. If true, #proxy participation may indicate that Iran fears disloyalty among security personnel and requires additional manpower to quell unrest. 1/4 #IranProtests
Social media users reported that #Iranian leadership is seeking to mobilize 4,000 #Hezbollah members to participate in Iranian domestic protest suppression. CTP cannot independently corroborate these reports. 2/4
This isn't the first time we're hearing these reports: #Iranian leadership has long been suspected of deploying proxies to support security forces' crackdowns in prior protest waves, like the 2009 Green Movement. 3/4 voanews.com/a/iran-hints-a…
#Iran has expanded internet censorship in recent days, indicating that regime leaders view ongoing protests following #MahsaAmini's death as a serious threat. Here's what we know so far: 1/6
#IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency today confirmed that #Iranian authorities blocked domestic access to #Whatsapp and #Instagram in an attempt to suppress nation-wide unrest. 2/6
#Russian forces continued ground attacks on the eastern outskirts of #Bakhmut and against #Avdiivka and continued routine fire along the frontline in #Donetsk Oblast on September 21.
Moscow faces severe manpower shortages in #Ukraine and is pulling some units from #Syria to inject into the fight. This continuing drawdown is facilitating the expansion of the #Iranian presence in Syria and exacerbating the Iran-Israel escalation cycle. 2/7
#Iran likely seeks to fill the security gap caused by this #Russian drawdown to expand Iranian military influence and maintain stability. 3/7
Russian-appointed occupation officials in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts announced on 9/20 that they will hold a “referendum” on acceding to Russia, with a vote taking place from 9/23-27. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
#Ukrainian forces continued disrupting ongoing #Russian efforts to reestablish ground lines of communications (GLOCs) across the Dnipro River in #Kherson Oblast.
#Russian forces are likely targeting #Ukrainian hydrotechnical infrastructure in #Kharkiv and #Luhansk oblasts to threaten Ukrainian positions along the Siverskyi Donets River.