Gonzalo Varela Profile picture
Jan 13 11 tweets 17 min read
In our latest #growth report for #Pakistan, we examined, among other themes, the role of #FDI in the country. How much #Pakistan attracts, how much it could attract, the impact on #productivity and on #jobs.

A short 🧵👇

openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/3…
1) #FDI is a useful source of financing for #developing countries. It is stable, and typically associated w/ #export growth, #job creation and #productivity upgrading. Does that all of that apply to #FDI in #Pakistan? Let's see...
2) #Pakistan's #FDI inflows/GDP (in green below) have been historically low and declining. Image
3) #FDI has also been low as a share of #foreign financing sources - this matters because #FDI is a relatively stable financing source, bringing #macroeconomic stability.

#Pakistan #investment #liabilities Foreign liabilities by type...
4) In #Pakistan, 1 in 4 greenfield #FDI (that is, new projects) announced over the past 5 years have focused on the #IT sector.

#greenfield #FDI announcements by #sector, #Pakistan Greenfield FDI announcement...
5) Is #FDI associated w/ #productivity growth in #Pakistan? Several ways of looking at this:

a- #foreign firms in #Pakistan are 46% more productive than domestic. They bring better #management & #technology, they also 'cherry pick' productive firms to acquire. (see col 2). Image
5) b- does more #FDI increase #productivity of other local firms (ie: #spillovers) ? Yes, but not by much.

Small vertical #spillovers from #services, benefitting the least productive local firms most.

#vertical #productivity #spillovers from #FDI FDI in upstream services se...
6) a- Our finding of #vertical #FDI spillovers are in line with findings of @waqarwadho and Chaudhry suggesting #innovation is triggered by vertical linkages with #suppliers (eg FDI).
6) b- our finding of limited spillovers (think that a 10 percent increase in #FDI leads to a tiny 0.5% increase in #productivity) may be related to the composition of #FDI in #Pakistan - mostly in highly protected, domestic oriented sectors.
7) Looking forward - what's the #potential for #FDI in #Pakistan? We estimate the #untapped #potential for #FDI inflows at $2.8 billion annually (more than double current inflows). Image
8) How to realize the #FDI potential? What's needed 4 #FDI is similar to what's needed 4 #domestic #investment.

Think #investment #policy as a cycle: attract, retain, & ensure it links w/ rest of the economy 4 high #spillovers.

For more ideas, read: openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/3… Image

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More from @gonwei

Jan 15
#Pakistan is going thru a complex #macro situation. At its heart is one symptom: the #CAD. Because the CAD has been perennial, this long-standing symptom translated into large foreign liabilities. Short 🧵👇
a) The #CAD shows that #Pakistan has been consuming beyond what it produces. At its heart, there’s another perennial deficit: the fiscal deficit. Image
b) To fix the #CAD, compressing #imports is futile (e.g. with the flood levy). You need either to reduce the fiscal deficit, or increase private saving well beyond investment. 👇
Read 10 tweets
Oct 27, 2022
We have now 3 months of disaggregated #trade data for FY23 in #Pakistan. Visible deceleration both on #exports and #imports. Some key elements in 🧵below:
#Exports grew in Jul-Sep 23 versus Jul-Sep 22 by 5.3%. Slightly faster growth in #goods than in #services.

#Pakistan
By destination: in general, expansions, but contractions of shipments to #China, to #UK and to #UAE.

#exports #Pakistan
Read 11 tweets
Aug 4, 2022
Now we have dissaggregated @StateBank_Pak data on #Pakistan's #trade performance for the full of the FY22.

This thread will show performance in #values. not #volumes. Keep in mind FY22 was extraordinary in terms of high #prices, both for #imports and #exports. 👇👇👇🧵
1\ #Exports reached record highs, both #goods and #services, increasing by 26.6 and 17.1% respectively w.r.t. FY21. Good export prices and a decent #export response played a role here. Note: June 2022 is preliminary. Figures are Jul-Jun FY22 and
2\ #Pakistan #export growth was generalized by main destination. Particularly noticeable are increases in shipments to #USA and to #China - the two largest destinations.
Read 10 tweets
May 20, 2022
A month ago I wrote this 🧵 on why #import duties were not the answer to #Pakistan's Balance of Payments constraints. #ImportBans are certainly not the answer either. Rather, they exacerbate the underlying problem. Five thoughts. 🧵👇

1\ The usual: CAD results from a macro imbalance (Saving too low relative to investment, so foreign saving needed (borrowing) (CAD is the mirror image of borrowing from the rest of the world (financial account of BOP)). Fixing the CAD takes increasing saving (cool off demand).
2\ The #importban in #Pakistan reduces #imports (does it? see point 3\ below), but not the CAD, because it also reduces #exports.
profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2022/05/01/imp…
Read 8 tweets
May 8, 2022
Thank you for the feedback, dear Yousuf. If you read the article carefully, you will see this is specific & data driven. A short thread to explain. 👇👇👇
Figure 2 in the article is built from a careful analysis combining micro-level *data* from all listed firms in Pakistan, & effective rates of protection (calculated based on FBR data on import duties and the latest input output *data* from IFPRI. It conveys the key message. 👇
Figure 3 comes from a careful econometric analysis we did w/@StefaniaLovo in which we recover markups from the data, and estimated systematic effects of changes in #import duties on these markups. It conveys the key message. 👇
Read 6 tweets
Apr 25, 2022
Fast #import growth has overshadowed some very good news in #Pakistan. The latest release of disaggregated #trade data by @StateBank_Pak reveals that the first nine months of FY22 showed #record high #exports in real terms, since there's statistics.
Short 🧵👇 w/ more results.
1\ #exports grew by 24.8% in the first 9 months of FY22 w.r.t. same period of FY21, reaching 23.7 bn for goods and 5.2 bn for services.

#Pakistan #trade
2\ All top destinations show fast #export growth. Shipments to the #USA and to #China in particular.
Read 9 tweets

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