Thread by @elisabethmalom1

🧵One of the most fascinating topics I've reported on: Unmanned technologies (both UUVs and UAVs) could offer the West an opening to catch up with #Russia, bogged down in Ukraine, in establishing a foothold in the warming #Arctic, according to experts.
defensenews.com/global/europe/…

2. The West is fairly late to the game against #Russia’s long-standing presence in the region (key to its national security and economic development), where experts agree it has succeeded in maintaining military superiority over the last decade.

3. The Kremlin has secured its #Arctic military capability primarily by banking on a “superior number of ice-breakers, its pioneering of Arctic-capable military drones, upgrading off-shore bases, missiles, runways and radar systems,” says @DrJamesRogers.

4. According to data from the American Security Project, in 2020 the number of #Russian military bases in use or being modernized in the Arctic was at least 16, of which 12 are air bases, three submarine bases and one drone-aerial reconnaissance base.

5. Moscow has been known to have several operational Arctic-capable drones for years: dual-purpose Zala Arctic drone series, another drone claimed to be able to remain in-flight for 4 days in the Arctic, a heavy lift cargo UAV capable of working at -70 degree celsius, etc.

6. To this list, @SamBendett adds the following are reportedly in development for the region: tiltrotor & helicopter type drones (VRT-300), Sarma deep-water autonomous UUV undergoing final tests, and the Shadow-2 UUV.

7. Experts have mixed reviews about whether Ukraine war is detracting attention from Russia's Arctic expansion. Roger and Kangasoja are of the similar view that its offensive “has taken a toll on both Russian Arctic readiness & its deployable assets.”

8. On the contrary, Bendett states that he hasn't necessarily seen it lessen the pace of its regional development “the Russian gov. kept announcing more resources for the Arctic in 2022 [construction of more icebreakers/military submarines & calling for greater attention there."

9. Specialists warn that although Russia appears to have highly advanced Arctic technology, the equipment has yet to see much real use and Russia’s military capabilities [performance of its equipment] have been quite generally overestimated prior to the war.”

10. Jussi Kangasoja, UAS expert at Finland's Arctic Drone Labs says it is clear that the conflict has pulled plenty, if not the majority, of Russian resources in terms of manpower/weapons from Arctic bases, leaving behind minimum crew. Its production has also slowed down.

11. @DrJamesRogers concurs that in the past Moscow has been known to embellish and overstate the capacity and readiness of its military weapons. However, he emphasizes that he would not “conclude in any way that Russia is weak when it comes to #Arctic defense.”

12. #US currently struggles with many of its UAVs losing network &communication capabilities when operating above the 77th parallel north, which US Northern Command chief Gen. Glen VanHerck has said hinders the military’s “day-to-day” competitiveness in the region.

13. Several Western countries seem to be prioritizing the dev. of Arctic-able drones. The IDG consortium, a multinational cooperation project among 6 Arctic/Antarctic states has created the IRSA architecture, a monitoring system with 4 types of drones, satellites, aircraft, etc.

14. US possesses the Arctic Shark, designed for BVLOS missions in polar regions, which can carry a payload up to 70 pounds (32kg). It has also been developing a wide-area underwater surv. system including UUVs, while GA successfully tested MQ-9 Reaper in Canadian Arctic in 2021.

15. Among European countries leading the way is #Denmark w/ its political prioritization of the region, realizing in 2021 an Arctic cap. package. It has pledged to spend $108m on fielding several long-endurance surveillance UAVs in line w/ a NATO request for the Faroe Islands.

16. Another making strides is #Finland, where Arctic Drone Labs is based. Kangasoja explains “we operate a fleet of 20+UAVs and various sensors in the North and are as we speak in the middle of planning new investments. Our systems are tested in highly challenging conditions."

17. For his part, Bendett isn't as optimistic that West can match Russian superiority in Arctic. He emphasizes that Russia has in its possession a dedicated # of financial, technical & human resources for continuation of Arctic exploration, including dev. of more uncrewed techno.

18. “Even if the West develops more uncrewed systems, that is not enough to have a significant presence in the Arctic, which requires [more] icebreakers and manned stations,” he argues.

19. One thing is clear, says @DrJamesRogers: Regardless of the conflict in #Ukraine, Moscow’s robust rhetoric about the high-priority defense of the #Russian Arctic remains unchanged.