Why are #Azerbaijan #Iran 🇦🇿🇮🇷 relations so bad?
Five 5️⃣ simple facts 🧵 (below) help explain why the 🇦🇿🇮🇷 Azeri-Iranian relationship has deteriorated and what’s really behind the recent attack against 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan’s embassy in Tehran ⤵️ . . .
Five 5️⃣ simple facts 🧵 (below) help explain why the 🇦🇿🇮🇷 Azeri-Iranian relationship has deteriorated and what’s really behind the recent attack against 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan’s embassy in Tehran ⤵️ . . .
1️⃣ #Sociologically: Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 & Iran 🇮🇷 are very different societies. Iran’s regime has a hardline, old and extreme interpretation of Shia-religion, while Azerbaijan has a more modern interpretation (gender parity, customs etc). It lay at the root of many differences . . .
2️⃣ #Historically: Iran (& Russia) colonised Azeri and South Caucasian people, while today large Azeri communities continue to live inside of Iran, many of which have strong linguistic and cultural bonds to Azerbaijan and do not accept Tehran’s radical governance-style . . .
3️⃣ #Geographically: Azerbaijan is the central player in the Middle Corridor, which circumvents Iran & instead connects East-West without Tehran. Iran traditionally tries to sabotage all attempts at a “Turan alliance” between Türkiye, Azerbaijan and other geo-Turkic nations . . .
However, the concept of a Turan alliance (or Middle Corridor) wasn’t seen as credible throughout recent history. That changed in 2022, when maritime freight prices increased and the Russian North Corridor became inoperable (physically & economically) due to Ukraine🇺🇦 war . . .
Today, TEU diverted trade to #Central #Asia #Caucasus #Türkiye #Balkans is substantial (EC figures) and Baku has become a major EU energy provider. Moreover, the 2023 @EBRD impact assessment is laying the grounds for major 🇪🇺 Global Gateway investments in Caspian/Türkiye+. . .
#Iran 🇮🇷 is not part of this plan, because Tehran:
❌ decided to support Russia’s invasion
❌ send drones against Ukraine
❌ integrate Moscow into its energy market
❌ go against UN 🇺🇳 JCPOA
“Iran 🇮🇷 chose its path, and now tries to sabotage all of us”: ret. 🇹🇷 diplomat . . .
❌ decided to support Russia’s invasion
❌ send drones against Ukraine
❌ integrate Moscow into its energy market
❌ go against UN 🇺🇳 JCPOA
“Iran 🇮🇷 chose its path, and now tries to sabotage all of us”: ret. 🇹🇷 diplomat . . .
4️⃣ 🇦🇲#Armenia/#Türkiye: traditionally #Iran supports Armenia, due to Iran’s fears of not being able to access the North-South corridor to Russia. Aggressive Iranian military exercises on the border (Oct) led to a joint 🇹🇷🇦🇿 Türkiye-Azerbaijan response in November.
5️⃣ #Military/#Israel: Since 2016, Israel has become the leading exporter to Azerbaijan of high-grade weapons systems and arms technology, while also upgrading 🇦🇿🇮🇱 intelligence and diplomatic/defence relations, since Azerbaijan is squeezed between aggressive neighbours 🇮🇷🇷🇺 . . .
The recent attacks by an extremist in Tehran against the Azeri embassy is likely to be the regime’s way of telling Baku not to be too “independent” or adventurous. Iran has a track record of using such indirect & violent methods.
Additional literature/bibliography below [END]
Additional literature/bibliography below [END]
Sep. 2022: iranintl.com/en/202209137964
Oct. 2022: dailysabah.com/opinion/op-ed/…
Nov. 2022: geopoliticalmonitor.com/war-remains-a-…
Nov. 2022: wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/russ…
Dec. 2022: mirrorspectator.com/2022/12/01/arm…
Jan-Feb 2023: trtworld.com/magazine/what-…
Jan-Feb 2023: timesofisrael.com/eyeing-iran-is…
Oct. 2022: dailysabah.com/opinion/op-ed/…
Nov. 2022: geopoliticalmonitor.com/war-remains-a-…
Nov. 2022: wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/russ…
Dec. 2022: mirrorspectator.com/2022/12/01/arm…
Jan-Feb 2023: trtworld.com/magazine/what-…
Jan-Feb 2023: timesofisrael.com/eyeing-iran-is…
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