2/8 What we've been saying: banks and the consumer are no longer the problem. #Banks are the new utilities.
3/8 The #government and business sector are the problems. Businesses have seen record #debt and record low #tax rates help inflate margins to unsustainable levels.
4/8 The market's #pricing structure sure looks like it has this perfectly backwards.
5/8 Forever higher #margins at multiples with no #risk premiums in much of Private Equity, some tech and some other discretionary.
6/8 In contrast, #banks and basics priced like the world is ending with the cleanest #balancesheets and most capital discipline I've seen in 27 years.
7/8 Feels like it could be a long and volatile cycle. The #market is going to have to inflict massive damage on the path to #price discovery.
8/8 Get How Much #Debt Does the US Have – US Debt by Year 👇🏼
2/10 “We’ve had 40+ years where all the money went into broadband, or internet, or #Netflix or the cloud and no money went into basic productive capacity…”
–Robert Friedland, CEO, Ivanhoe group of companies
3/10 What follows is KCR’s attempt to create a simple walk-through of the #risks and #opportunities offered today. We believe both the structure and implications of this paper are easy to grasp.
1/19 @ttmygh of the wonderful Things That Make You Go HMMMM newsletter just wrote a scathing piece on the emerging #pension fund disaster in lagged marks from private #equity.
2/19 As he explains: #PrivateEquity is taking down Pension Funds as they struggle to keep the game of hot-potato going. “Hot potato” being the business practice of selling slices of companies back and forth to one another at ever higher #valuations.
3/19 The “solution” appears to be PE firms building funds to buy #assets from themselves at possibly fraudulent valuations set by themselves.
2/4 In our piece, The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions we stated, " The electrification of transportation is going to require a massive amount of #mining. The stocks are incredibly cheap."
2/7 "$CRM CEO Marc #Benioff and $META CEO Mark #Zuckerberg have admitted that they hired too many employees under the assumption that the growth their #sector experienced during the pandemic would continue."
3/7 "In periods of growth, the errors made by overconfident #CEOs are often buffered by the upswing of the economic cycle. In contrast, during upswings, underconfident CEOs lose out because they stay hamstrung with #risk aversion."
2/21 Their analysis of WeWork's failed business model is spot on.
"The problem for $WE is the margin between what they pay and what they receive from their #customers has not been enough to cover the very large administrative/marketing/advertising #expenses."
3/21 Their story is wild. WeWork was founded in 2010. By 2014, it "the fastest-growing lessee of new #office space in New York" and was on track to become "the fastest-growing lessee [lessor] of new space in America."
1/6 It's not that complicated. When a company issues #stock to employees or the public, it increases shares outstanding and dilutes #earnings per share.
2/6 Give the #stock to the employee, and the cash doesn’t show up on the balance sheet. Robbing Peter to pay Paul. In #broaddaylight
3/6 In the run-up to the peak of the dot com bubble, #stockcomp felt good. Until the stocks started going down and it felt awful. That is precisely where we are today. It tends to be a self-reinforcing spiral.