Thread by @commandeleven

The #TTP occupation in #Swat is significantly more than is being reported in the domestic media.

Many villages are under TTP control, and search operations have been on-going for more than 5 months.

It is no surprise that the TTP has returned to Swat for us @commandeleven.

For the past 3 years, we have repeatedly informed and warned that the TTP presence was growing and their influence was increasing.

Deaf ears.

We have repeatedly argued against the negotiating table, because it is a sign of weakness.

Why should we negotiate?

The news of Gen. #FaizHameed's deal to hand over parts of #KPK to #TTP, in return for peace for the country - that is accepting defeat and emboldening the enemy.

Is it any surprise that there was a significant uptick in violence from December onwards, when TTP walked away again?

Now, the reports coming out of #Afghanistan of another brilliant strategy of #Islamabad's government:

Resettle the #TTP fighters, under the guise of refugees from #Waziristan, to Northern Afghanistan, which has been flat out rejected by the people of the north.

Their argument is this is a "Pashtunization" of the north of #Afghanistan by moving #terrorists away from the #Pakistan border. They have also said that if they were to accommodate the "refugees," it would be limited to 6,000 only, and they must be families.

The problems this presents is many fold.

1. Moving the #TTP doesn't solve the #ISKP problem, which is still based in those areas that the TTP will vacate. ISKP & Taliban have a major turf war on-going for control and governance.

Mixed in the turf war are the #Pakistani jihadi groups who have found safe haven along the Pak-Afghan border. This includes the #TTP, #LeJ, #JuA, #BLA and many others.

Many will chose their alliances and many deserters will find new homes with one of the major combatants.

Either way, #Pakistan loses. Whether it is #TTP, #BLA, or #ISKP, they will all continue to pose a threat to Pakistan as long as they are allowed to exist. That is simple.

Re-settling is just another excuse for training and re-arming, which can only believed from Sirajuddin Haqqani's visit to the same area last week.

It's the same excuse that has duped the government of #Pakistan for decades - negotiations.

2. This creates a significant security situation for the Central Asian States (#CAR) because the #TTP can be make them a target or be tactically used against them.

They will also not accept the movement to Northern Afghanistan.

3. This does not solve the demand of #Pakistan or the #DohaAccords that #Afghan soil not be used against any country.

Nor does it address the core concern of disarmament and surrender to the armed forces of Pakistan.

Some will say that Pakistan & Taliban released thousands of #TTP prisoners during the negotiations.

Again, read above - the excuses that Pakistan has fallen for.

What is the way forward, which benefits both Pakistan and Afghanistan?

A coordinated cross-border campaign to wipe out #ISKP, #BLA, #TTP and other jihadi camps. Until these groups are eliminated, neither Pakistan nor Afghanistan will find peace and stability.

They are feeders.

Second, will the help of #China, retrain and oversee the Afghanistan military to bring them to a level where they can defend their country and the interests of those nations who are investing/doing business with them.

This is core for the stability of the region.

Third, with the assistance of #Russia and #China, help teach the #Taliban how to govern their country. Rather than run the government or install puppets, we give them shadows to discuss and come to a solution best for the Afghan people.

Be clear. The Taliban have no idea how to run a country or a military. They are dealing with upstart fighters and groups that aligned with them during the #US occupation.

Shedding them now is essential for credibility.

Simultaneously, the Taliban must deal with the factions that keep them from getting international support for the Afghan people.

Whether they are from within, or outside the Taliban structure, they must be removed from the power tree and sidelined from military activities.

These are Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) that must be taken before any serious discussions continue with the Taliban from Islamabad or Rawalpindi.

These CBMs will bring stability to our side of the border and eliminate the violent threat to the Afghan people.