Thread by @ASlavitt

Next week is the most important week for the GOP tax bill. I will walk through why & the timing.

Follow if interested. 1/

On Wednesday, McConnell plans to bring the tax bill to the floor using the same techniques as w health care (limited debate/amendments).2/

McConnell's goal is to have a vote by end of week, Fri or Sat.

A week from now we could have a bill out of each House ready to reconcile.3/

Before I go through the issues, the calendar...

The next hurdle would be to likely go to conference to reconcile H v S bills. 4/

If that happens, the final bill goes back 2 both Houses 4 a final vote.

McConnell wants the bill back for a final Senate vote by 12/20.
5/

December 20 is a critical date for the tax bill for a simple reason.

This is when the new AL Senator is expected to be seated. 6/

This week: Every R Senator would like to pass some bill. McConnell's challenge is to get agreement on 50/53 on what that bill is. 7/

KEY: Different Senators have different concerns.
-Collins: ACA, skew of cuts to wealthy
-Johnson: small biz v corporate
-Moran: ACA, debt impact
-Corker, Flake, Lankford: debt impact
8/

On tweet 7, it's 50/52 not 53. Need smaller thumbs or edit function. Point is McConnell needs a bill that only loses 2 from last tweet.9/

And there are other Senators with a ther concerns.

McCain's big issue are the defense caps that will come as a result of sequestration. 10/

What this means is easiest described in a scenario. Say that Corker & Flake say they won't vote for a massive debt increase. 11/

Debt is projected to ⬆️ at least $1.4 Trillion. Some complain that this doesn't account for a "dynamic score" but that looks even worse.12/

Under this scenario, McConnell write off 2 votes because he doesn't want to reduce the tax cuts. That leaves him w 1 Senator to spare.13/

Under this scenario, any Senator can object to tax bill:
-87mm households w tax ⬆️
-$40B transfer from poor 2 rich
-13mm losing coverage
14/

KEY: Once changes are required, the 12/20 (AL Senate) date is almost surely blown. 15/

And this doesn't begin 2 address how challenging it is for certain House members 2 support those items + raising taxes due 2 S&LT deduct.16/

This week is key. This bill is beyond bad. It is massively unpopular. This is the time to push it back. 17/end