Quick thread on Irish border deal. Dublin sees it, possibly prematurely, as a roaring success for Leo Varadkar and Irish diplomacy. 1/
The Irish had been deeply concerned that UK believed cameras and drones could solve issue (there are already cameras on the border, and Republican dissidents already wreck them) 2/
EU accepts that technology might help but doesn't accept that a camera can replace a checkpoint, which they say non-regulatory alignment, at the very least, demands. 3/
Dublin privately terrified that Brexiteer rallying cry to declare no border on UK side and leave them holding the baby would became mainstream policy. But that's been avoided today, **FOR NOW**. 4/
That's because there is now what Dublin views as a safety valve in the phase 1 Brexit deal - if it all goes wrong during phase two, whole of UK must accept alignment on cross-border issues. 5/
So far so grand. But there's a problem, and this deal kicks it down the road. Ireland/EU still wants an arrangement that is the status quo or damn near it. This deal edges the UK closer to that. 6/
Irish government believes this arrangement will make it difficult - but not impossible - to sign trade deals. Not sure it's sunk in here in Dublin just how much fury that could spark among cabinet and backbench Brexiteers 7/
If the Americans come out now and say, "sorry, we said we'd only do a deal with you if you went down the deregulation route, and you haven't," then sweet holy Christmas it's gonna kick off in Brexit Britain 8/
Free trade folks will be livid. Pressure will mount on May to backtrack. I understand May COULD try and renegotiate phase one if she wished, but that would presumably be political suicide. 9/
Of course I might be wrong, and avoiding a hard border while leaving the customs union and single market and doing free trade deals with America might be easily done. But nothing has been easy so far. 9/
So no, the Irish border issue has not been solved. It's just been put on ice for a couple of weeks/months. Leo had it right to be fair - "this is not the end, it's end of the beginning." **flips shut notebook, heads to airport** 10/end
