The Boles Norway Plus option - a short thread:
1. Irish backstop 'falls away': but since UK cd leave EEA, EU will insist Irish backstop is permanently available
1. Irish backstop 'falls away': but since UK cd leave EEA, EU will insist Irish backstop is permanently available
2. UK to leave CAP/CFP - so then there needs to be specific arrangements for NI as now in backstop so no friction for agric/fish products at border
- so there would be NI/UK differentiation
- so there would be NI/UK differentiation
3. All EEA members have to agree to UK joining incl EU27 so why wd they not insist on discussing fisheries agreement in parallel?
Also EU wd surely insist that any customs union did not include fisheries products i.e. Scottish/UK fisheries face tariffs/delays at borders
Also EU wd surely insist that any customs union did not include fisheries products i.e. Scottish/UK fisheries face tariffs/delays at borders
4. UK wd be 'rule-shaper' - the new word to avoid facing up to the rule-taker democratic deficit, which wd be quite extraordinary - UK moving from vote on regulations, laws, trade policy to rule-taker even more than Norway
5. free movement continues: good for remainers &economy
5. free movement continues: good for remainers &economy
6. Unicorns - presumption that UK cd leave customs union for 'longer term deal' once new arrangements worked out for Irish border, so somehow - unlike Norway, expect UK to be in single mkt but eventually perhaps to have frictionless borders outside CU
7. EFTA members are meant to join up to EFTA trade deals - so presumption that this will be waived - perhaps but quite possibly wd be in a new single mkt/CU structure to be agreed w EU i.e. deep CU wd be bespoke. Could take fair bit longer than to end Dec 2020.
8. The single mkt/CU option has always failed the democracy test - why leave the EU in that case; and the EU is bound to take decisions on key laws, issues that are not in UK interests once UK has no vote nor presence at council - so less good economically.
9.And if UK fails to agree single mkt/CU structures in time (new Tory government decides to aim for Canada after all), backstop kicks in and UK in a damaging basic CU indefinitely
10. So main aim of Norway Plus is to make sure Brexit happens, never mind economic/democratic costs, then aim to leave Norway Plus in future for some mythical, frictionless borders deal. All designed to leave EU in March, ignore UK opinion now 'remain', avoid a people's vote
