Thread by @SteveLawrence_

On the Brexit timeline:
1. The European Commission will make proposals on transition in January 2018.
2. The European Council will deliberate on the future framework agreement in March 2018.
consilium.europa.eu/media/32236/15…

On the transition menu:
1. A formal extension of time under Article 50. (Requires Unanimity)
2. A stand-alone ‘transition treaty’. (Requires Unanimity)
3. A transition chapter within the Withdrawal Agreement. (Requires QMV)

1. Has been ruled out by May & whilst vulnerable to veto would be likely to be acceptable.
2. Allows a degree of leverage but is vulnerable to veto & is probably impossible given the time constraint.
3. Is not vulnerable to veto but diminishes leverage to zero.

So the only possibility ATM is a chapter within the Withdrawal Agreement itself & given the EU’s acceptance that Internal Market & Customs Union membership cannot be contemplated the only possible outcome is a comprehensive EU/UK FTA - this determines the length of transition.

So transition will have to be between 5-10 years & the ‘end state’ will be a bespoke FTA, not EFTA, but 100% aligned with the EEA, Internal Market and Customs Union. A British Free Trade Area.