A few of the scenarios I am worried about in 2018 and/or I am genuinely concerned will actually occur and for which I deduce there is no meaningful international response prepared:
Overt and flagrant violations of constitutional order in the US by the Trump admin (compounded with continued passive violations, as is presently the case) and non-reaction by relevant authorities (Congress primarily). A de facto state of "lawlessness" previously unimaginable.
Growing cleavages within EU between, especially between illiberal Visegrad bloc, on one hand, and Germany and France on the other. Compounded by continued volatility in both UK re: Brexit (and likelihood of no deal), the Irish border Q in particular, and separatism in Spain.
A critical mass of far-right govts and/or far-right coalition members across West, normalizing extreme right as legitimate members of electoral mainstream (see DUP, FOP etc). Result: polarization of parliamentary conduct, increasing possibility of extra-institutional violence.
Non-end of Syrian War; live fire exchanges between NK & US; continued escalation of RUS aggression vs UKR, testing waters in Baltics and other parts of E. Europe. Direct confrontations between Iran & KSA. All exacerbated by lack of credible US diplomatic capacities.
In the Balkans: overt Russian adventurism, especially in Bosnia, ahead of the 2018 elxns and/or their immediate aftermath. Situation in RS entity especially volatile, high chance of manipulation/fraud by Dodik govt. Similar scenes are likely in HDZ-dominated Herzegovina.
Growing RUS presence in Croatian economy & failure of “Lex Agrokor” strategy of HDZ-led govt leading to catastrophic economic crisis in both Croatia and whole of Western Balkans. Overt turn towards one-man rule in Serbia. Extra-institutional confrontations in Kosovo, Macedonia.
Many additional scenarios about which I am worried (i.e. still worsening pol conditions in Turkey) but these loom largest in my mind. Above all, I am disturbed by the lack of big picture thinking by world leaders and their associates. We are sleepwalking into widening gyres. /xx
