THREAD on the big NYT Papadopoulos story. The intel passed on by the Aussie’s is probably very significant b/c it finally prompted a resistant FBI to launch an investigation. This intel looks like the straw that broke the camel's (FBI's) back. Worth reviewing what we know...1/
US intel was late to the game and was alerted by Euro intel agencies about Trump-Russia contacts back into 2015. The Guardian had a huge story in April citing US and UK intel sources, saying “UK was principal whistleblower.” theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/a…. 2/
The Guardian also reported not just UK, but multiple Euro intel agencies (and Australia). The contacts “were picked up by chance as part of routine surveillance of Russian intelligence assets... targeting the same people began to see a pattern of connections.” 3/ 
The Guardian also says the FBI and CIA were “slow to appreciate the extensive nature of the contacts.” In the summer of 2016, the head of GCHQ directly passed extremely sensitive intel to Brennan. Note this is the UK passing intel, not Australia. 4/
Quick aside: remember when Trump attacked GCHQ for "wiretapping him" in March… hmmm… 4.5/ theguardian.com/us-news/2017/m…
James Clapper also essentially confirmed the Guardian story under oath in May when Sen Feinstein asked him foreign intel passed info on meetings and contacts. Clapper says “Yes, it is and it's also quite sensitive.” 5/ washingtonpost.com/news/post-poli… 
But it’s not just the Guardian story. In March the NYT also reported that UK and Dutch provided intel on “meetings in European cities between Russian officials… and associates of President-elect Trump.” 6/ nytimes.com/2017/03/01/us/…
Also in January the BBC reported that in April 2016, CIA Dir. Brennan was shown “a tape recording of a conversation about money from the Kremlin going into the US presidential campaign.” This prompted the creation of a joint-interagency task force. 7/ bbc.com/news/world-us-… … 
Also in September the WSJ reported that as early as 2015 “U.S. spy agencies captured Russian government officials discussing associates of Mr. Trump.” 8/ wsj.com/articles/u-s-m… 
A few take aways from this... 9/
First, the Russia “inquiry” did NOT in fact begin with Papadopoulos, as the NYT headline blared. Instead, Papadop finally forced the FBI to get their head out of the sand and launch a formal investigation. Something that the FBI seemed to have been resisting. 10/
Not only did FBI resist investigating, but also sought to conceal the investigation into the Trump campaign during the election, by lying to the NYT on Oct 31 and ignoring formal letter from Sen Reid. 11/
The irony that now the FBI is being attacked by GOP as a liberal bastion when it seems the FBI’s slowness to act and its failure to reveal the investigation prior to the election did Trump a huge political solid. 12/
Second, since the Trump-Russia contacts go back into 2015, which means this goes to Trump’s inner circle. Remember Papadop, Manafort, Page, and Flynn were NOT on the campaign (all joined Feb/March 2016) and none c/d be considered a Trump “associate” back into 2015. 13/
Remember there was no one on the campaign in 2015. Here is Forbes describing visiting Trump Tower campaign HQ in Nov. 2015... 14/ 
So who was meeting w/ the Russians in 2015? That’s a crucial question. And was that passed on. Let’s remember what Peter Thiel said about Jared: "If Trump was the CEO, Jared was effectively the chief operating officer." 15/ forbes.com/sites/stevenbe…
Lastly, we need to stop thinking about this one discrete event. Both campaigns - the Trump campaign and the Russian campaign to elect Trump - wanted to work together. It was in both campaigns interests to do so. And so they met again and again and again starting in 2015... 16/
The big unanswered question is not whether they worked together (or colluded) but how they colluded. Did the Trump campaign get advanced access to Podesta/DNC emails? Did they coordinate on digital targeting and messaging? Was Russian money laundered into the campaign? 17/
My guess is that Papadopoulos has a good amount to reveal about the emails. He knew the Russians had them, he alerted sr. campaign officials, and the Trump campaign almost definitely tried to get them. That was intel the FBI c/dn't ignore in July 2016. 18/18
