Really fucked up situation in NW Syria right now, which I'm trying to get my head around. The following is how I understand it - let me know if you think I've got it wrong:
1.a ISIS has played a really smart series of moves in Idlib/Hama. First, in the Autumn, they did a deal with Russia/regime to transfer fighters from Deir Ezzor into Idlib, where they quietly switched to counter-insurgency mode...
1b. The Syrian government & its Russian media allies promoted a false "ISIS defeated in Syria" narrative, while 1000 ISIS fighters regrouped in Idlib/Hama...
1c. HTS, the al-Qaeda-linked Islamists who control much of Idlib, were busy suppressing & disarming other rebel groups, who were also restrained by Turkey, who were playing a Great Power game to create a sphere of influence along their border...
1d. Around Xmas, regime troops started advancing on Abu Duhair airbase, attempting to cut off HTS fighters in Idlib's countryside, while ISIS simultaneously attacked HTS from their regime-created pocket. HTS, having fucked over other rebels, were alone and in disarray...
1e. Last week, Turkey finally starts re-equipping other rebel groups, who then manage to slow regime advance, leaving regime forces stretched quite thin. The US-led coalition (that's us) totally ignored the ISIS build-up in Idlib, as it's in Russia's official sphere of influence
1f. So, Trump, Putin & Erdogan, who all have the strategic approach of schoolyard bullies, have allowed ISIS to come back to life in the heart of Syria, in order to preserve their neo-colonial spheres of influence...
1g. Now ISIS is advancing against both the stretched regime fighters and rebels who are battling for Abu Duhair airbase, despite the fact Assad and Putin declared them defeated...
2a. MEANWHILE, Erdogan has started a brutal operation against PYD-controlled Kurdish Afrin, which America sees as its sphere of influence. This is a disaster: for Kurds, obviously, but also for the rebels, who need to focus on defending Idlib, which is under constant bombardment.
2b. PYD tried to play the Great Powers - allying at various points with USA, Russia & regime, who have all proved inconstant allies. If there is slaughter in Afrin, it'll be the tragic reward for that strategy...
2c. And the West, which decided to put most of its eggs in the Kurdish basket (instead of solidly backing Syrian rebels) has lost all its leverage - and Russia and Assad stand back laughing.
2d. And while these neocolonial power games play out, 2.5 million civilians in rebel Idlib (many displaced from other areas), as well as thousands in Ghouta, continue to live under constant bloody bombardment, keeping alive the hope of freedom.
The Syrian regime is just a vassal of Russia/Iran now, who own its air space. They are happy about the Turkish invasion of PYD territory, betraying the PYD who helped them suppress rebels in Aleppo.
So any leftists who support the Kurdish cause but also think Russia/Iran are somehow "anti-imperialist" countries, watch Russia/Iran back Turkey's assault on Afrin and think again
PS Lots of stories circulating on which powers allowed ISIS fighters to move: the fact is they all did. a) In June, 400 ISIS fighters surrendered to Hezbollah near Arsal, who escorted them to Abu Kamal. US tried to stop them, but bowed to Russian pressure nytimes.com/2017/09/13/wor…
b) In October, Kurds/US/coalition did a deal to end fighting in exchange for 250 Syrian ISIS fighters being escorted out. SDF cleared Raqqa of media & smugglers took them to Iraqi border theguardian.com/world/2017/oct…
c) In November, Russia claimed the US was doing something similar again - but the evidence they supplied was... a screenshot from a video game bellingcat.com/news/mena/2017…
d) Meanwhile, by 13 October there were reports of ISIS creating a new pocket in Hama, having traveled freely thru regime territory, then starting to attack HTS alongside regime forces
e) In December, US reported observing examples of ISIS unchallenged infiltration through regime territory
f) By the end of the year, ISIS had fully re-established itself in Hama, with regime support, and was advancing against HTS and not touching regime positions
bild.de/politik/auslan…
bild.de/politik/auslan…
...On the Assad regime working alongside ISIS in recent months, see this summary by @ruslantrad:
g. However, shamefully, the US-led Coalition (that's us) completely ignored this new ISIS pocket, as it was in territory earmarked at Astana for the Russian sphere of influence. US focused entirely on Iraqi border area
