Thread by @pmdfoster

Two EU sources say UK discreetly asked about extending #Brexit transition beyond Dec 31 2020. The EU said 'no'.

The UK government categorically denies this exchange ever happened. My latest.

And some brief observations. /1

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…

The EU offer of transition to Dec 31 2020 is plainly inadequate - just 21 months. The date is picked because it is the end of their budget cycle. Both sides know this. /2

The UK position - per Mrs May in Florence - is "about two years"

If the UK wanted transition to Dec 31 2021, that would be two years, nine months. Also inadequate. /3

As we report official govt policy remains "about two years", tho David Davis was notably silent on the timeline during his speech today. But it will be "time-limited" - meaning defined. /4

Last night Hammond/Davis/Clark sent letters to business leaders in which they said of the transition/implementation period:

“The period’s duration will be strictly time-limited, and should be determined simply by how long it will take to make these
changes.” /5

The problem here is that the politics precludes honesty - when any sane person without a dog in the fight knows that a "smooth" Brexit will take time.. As @CER_Grant notes here. /6

Arguably, the 'harder' the Brexit, the longer the transition will need to be.

The hard Brexiteers should indeed worry if the government was really capable of delivering Brexit in 21 months - in which case the changes will be 'modest' indeed. /7

The EU side also knows this - which is why 15 member states this week requested a provision be left to revisit the Dec 31 2020 deadline at a later date, if necessary. /8

And it will surely be necessary if the UK is leaving the/a customs union.

Recall that at the point of Brexit in Mar 2019 we may only have broad terms of a future trade deal. Negotiations don't start til April 1 2019.

/9

Even if you started now - hiring customs officers, bulldozing parts of Kent to make inspection bays, writing the computer code, giving companies time to work out VAT forms and Rules of Origin questions, standing up regulatory agencies - we'll be nowhere close to being ready. /10

Whatever your views on Brexit, no-one wants chaos, and surely not the hard Brexiteers, or they will risk losing public good will for the project very quickly indeed.

They should by lobbying for slow and steady, not quick and chaotic in my view. /11

Everyone knows this. And yet no-one is allowed to say it - for fear of causing complete panic.

Without greater honesty on all sides - on transition, trade-offs etc- I fear Brexit will go bang. 12/ENDS