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Anupam Bapu Jena @AnupamBJena
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Reduction in Firearm Injuries during NRA Annual Conventions 1/N
Our new @NEJM study
- 20% reduction in gun injuries during convention dates vs identical days in surrounding 3 weeks
- Largest reductions in men, who comprise majority of convention attendees…
- Largest reductions in states w/ high gun ownership
- Largest reductions when convention is held in a given individual's state in a given year (hypothesis: conventions are easier to attend)
- Data: large privately insured population, ~75 million visits over 9 years
- Mechanism: Unknown but possibly due to brief reductions in overall gun use during convention dates, e.g., due to convention attendance itself, brief closures of venues where guns may be used (ranges, hunting grounds), or lower use if gun use sometimes occurs in groups
- Are estimates plausible? I.e., a 20% reduction when only a couple percent of gun owners may attend conventions?
- Hard to say. Depends on distribution of use among gun owners. Need to know typical use (which drives injury risk) among convention goers vs. non-goers
What does this mean?
- Interesting way to show risks associated with gun use. Even among plausibly experienced and trained users, risks are present, just as driving a car poses non-zero risk even among expert drivers.
- Findings should be replicated
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