Thread by @JenniferMerode

1. The EU has never had a genuine debate on the future relationship with the UK - a few thoughts on Brexit tactics.

2. EU leaders were given a presentation by Michel Barnier in December, when he presented his famous downward steps Brexit chart - but it wasn’t a fully-fledged discussion. European council spent “one minute” agreeing red lines drawn up by Barnier last April.

3. EU27 Brexit attachés have had a dozen seminars on policy areas (regulation, foreign policy, much more). Experts have asked questions, raised issues, but there hasn’t been prolonged debate.

4. EU27 final ‘wrap-up’ seminar takes place today. To be followed by guidelines on how the EU sees the future relationship ( Monday). These guidelines may be fairly limited. Barely a fortnight to agree them. Intention is not to close doors to UK.

5. Seminars have been described as educational, showing everyone the difficulties of life outside the EU. That’s surely half the point.

6. Brexit seminars have revealed differences in tone, not substance. France, Germany, Netherlands and Denmark take a tough line - ‘UK must come up with a plan’. Others, e.g. CEE, Sweden, Luxembourg don’t want to close any doors... but agree ‘UK must come up with a plan’.

7. No member state has made a plea to break the mould of existing agreements. Absence of UK plan means EU yet to confront different interests. Also helped EU unity to mature.

8. EU27 unity has taken everyone by surprise. The longer it lasts the higher the stakes for breaking that unity.

9. Increasingly difficult for UK to split EU from the outside. E.g cut-off date for citizens’ rights. Many member states thought UK had a point. EU nationals moving to UK during transition know the score on Brexit, unlike those who came before, BUT…

10. France, Germany were unhappy about creating a third category of citizens - bureaucratic mess. Spain, Italy unhappy about early cut off date. Perhaps a majority sympathetic to UK, but no one would make a stand, b/c not worth risking EU27 unity. The UK caved in.

11. Another example: transition end date. Setting 31 December 2020 as transition end - a mere 21 months - sharp tactics that wrongfoot UK. UK gov probably not ready to leave 2020, but can’t be seen (yet) as needing, wanting to stay longer.

12. Transition end date neatly aligns to EU 7-year budget (MFF). But if UK wants longer, it must be the demandeur and request any extension of the transition, plus offer extra payments (no rebate). UK is supplicant.

13. That is why the EU has not had a debate on Brexit. EU view (understandable) ‘UK voted, so why should we work out what it means’.
Tactically EU in stronger position if the UK is a demandeur, forced to spell out what it wants and confront fantasy claims and contradictions.

14. For EU, Brexit means fitting UK into existing rules, not creating a new rule book.

If Theresa May continues to ask for a Brexit deal the EU is not willing to offer, likely to help keep EU together.

////