1/ EU diplomats have updated their draft guidelines for the future partnership and the changes made over the last week give an interesting insight into how differing priorities between Member States are driving a carrot and stick approach towards Britain.
2/ Firstly, the carrots. Reference to negotiating an FTA in the original has been upgraded, so that it will now be a ‘balanced, ambitious and wide-ranging’ deal. Nothing the EU hasn’t said before, but it’s still softer language for the Government.
3/ On exchange of data post-Brexit, a new sentence has been included that says any agreement ‘should include adequate rules that protect data flows while facilitating trade’.
4/ On transport, there’s still the section on the EU’s desire for an aviation agreement to keep planes flying. But Member States have added that they want ‘an agreement on road transport’ too.
5/ Finally, there’s a new passage about Britain and the EU facing ‘global challenges’ together. These are ‘in particular in the areas of climate change and sustainable development, where the Union and the UK should continue close cooperation.’
6/ These additions are courtesy of around a dozen Member States who have particularly strong trade links with Britain and are keen to make a deal as ambitious as possible whilst protecting the EU’s integrity.
7/ However, the EU giveth and the EU taketh away. A reference to the ‘negative economic consequences’ of Brexit has had ‘in particular in the UK’ bolted on the end. Ouch, that hurts.
8/ No thanks Phil: The new version rejects Hammond’s idea for a special financial services deal by adding ‘the Union will protect its financial stability and its regulatory and supervisory autonomy’.
9/ The language is cooler (though still pretty warm) on security, defence and foreign policy. Gone is a pledge there will be ‘no gap in the EU-UK cooperation’ to be replaced with ‘there should be a strong EU-UK cooperation’.
10/ And finally (this is aimed more at itself in truth) comes a warning that won’t please David Davis: ‘The Commission and the Member States to continue the work on preparedness for the consequences of the UK withdrawal.’
11/ The sticks are mostly being crafted by Germany, France and the Commission, though in truth all Member States are agreed that protecting the integrity of the Single Market (and demonstrating why Britain’s worse off out of it) are key.
12/ Finally, a disclaimer: These are draft guidelines and subject to change. They’ll be discussed by EU27 ambassadors tomorrow and ministers next Tuesday before appearing in front of leaders for sign off next Friday.
