Look at Nigeria’s GDP per capita. No real growth in GDP per capita in 60 years. Meanwhile you have 40/50 years of oil. This should be our real worry. 
Look at the non-oil export multiple needed for growth, even with super favorable assumptions. This is going to be hard work.
The real danger of our policy focus is the fixation with import substitution instead of export competitiveness. Look at our non-oil exports relative to Mexico.
Look at our exports in 2016. 92% oil and gas. Our focus should not be just diversifying our economy, but primarily diversifying our exports. Now what can we export apart from oil?
First target, grow exports of easy and ubiquitous products. Build capability and gradually move to the complex stuff that really drives growth.
So maybe agric and Agro allied exports to start, then start to find centers of excellence to produce fertilizers, paints, maybe even become a garment hub.
Nigeria’s binding constraints - transport (road/rail/sea), electricity and access to land. God to see some parts of the transport constraint being fixed. But more needs to be done.
If you have nothing to do, play around CID’s Atlas of Economic Complexity. If you want to sleep well, don’t start with Nigeria. atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/?count…
made this point a few days ago. DJT’s trade war provides some s/term opportunities to improve FX earning. See where China buys sorghum from, and who we export to.
Anyway, final point. Nigeria must move from one tree (oil) to others (diversify). And like monkeys who tend to fall to lower levels as they jump, each jump gives us room to climb up (improve quality of output).
If we focus on BPO or even garment making today, in a decade of consistent investment, we will be much better. If we let MNOs@lead, then the learning curve isn’t as steep.
