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Glen Peters @Peters_Glen
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
New study suggests higher economic growth rates more likely than previously thought, making the worst-case emission scenario (RCP8.5) more likely. pnas.org/content/early/…
Maybe economic growth will be higher than thought, but that does not translate into RCP8.5 (not sure there is a connection). "We’ve already locked in a certain amount of climate policy” newscientist.com/article/216884…
Modelling of future coal extraction suggests that RCP8.5 is infeasible. See Ritchie et al (@jritch) sciencedirect.com/science/articl… and Mohr et al sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Depending on the background socioeconomics, high growth rates may not lead to high climate outcomes, even in the absence of climate policy. sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
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THREAD (The Global Status of CCS)

CCS is moving, but moving way too slowly for for 1.5°C or 2°C.

Even if you are not a CCS fan, worth checking the report by @GlobalCCS to get an update on the current status of CCS around the world.

#COP24 globalccsinstitute.com/resources/glob…
There currently exists ~40MtCO₂ per year capture *capacity* (0.1% global emissions), the vast majority for Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR). It is harder to know how much of CO₂ is stored (not commonly reported or verified), but the estimate here is 200MtCO₂ (cumulatively).
Of the 230MtCO₂ cumulative storage, the vast majority is in the US and for enhanced oil recovery. Norway is the only country (substantially) sequestering CO₂ specifically for storage purposes, where carbon pricing makes it beneficial to store the CO₂. Policy is important!
Read 9 tweets
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THREAD (Global Fossil CO₂ Emissions)

Global fossil CO₂ emissions are on track to rise more than 2% in 2018 (2.7%, range 1.8% to 3.7%). Emissions rose 1.6% in 2017 (leap-year adjusted) after a temporary slowdown from 2014 to 2016.

#CarbonBudget #COP24 globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…
Countries that need to slowdown:
* China, up 4.7% [2.0–7.4%]
* India, up 6.3% [4.3–8.3%]
* Others (largely developing), up 1.8% [0.5–3.0%]

Countries that need faster reductions:
* USA, up 2.5% [0.5–4.5%]
* EU, down 0.7% [-2.6–1.3%]

#CarbonBudget #COP24 globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…
There is a broad spread in CO₂ emissions per capita, but for a chance of 1.5°C or 2°C, countries with low per capita emissions also have to reduce emissions.

Yes, developed countries have to do more, but they can’t do it alone!

#CarbonBudget #COP24 globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…
Read 10 tweets
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Does model bias effect outcomes of the #IPCC 1.5°C emission scenarios #SR15?

The scenario database is over represented by some model frameworks. Taking statistics will over represent some models (eg, REMIND, AIM), discount others (eg @IEA), & not all models included!

THREAD 1/
The bias varies by scenario category, here for 1.5°C scenarios with "no or low overshoot" as highlighted in #SR15. Should REMIND & POLES get more weight then GCAM or MERGE?
2/
I often take medians of scenarios to simplify communication, trying to reveal the "key characteristics" of 1.5°C (trying to find robust messages). The scenario community does not like this approach
3/
Read 8 tweets

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#Golgi2018 @FEBSnews Meeting. Looking forward to sharing my notebook on another day of great talks!

Micrograph: Judith Klumperman.
First talk of the day: Mukund Thattai: Algorithmic biosynthesis of glycans in Golgi compartments

@veeslerlab and @coronalexington would dig this talk.
Cryo-EM structure of Coronavirus spike protein with glycan shield.

From Lexi @coronalexington and colleagues @UWBiochemistry.
Read 87 tweets
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A thread about this Nature advice column about how female scientists can combat gender bias - To be clear, I'm incredibly grateful to the women in this piece. The advice is clear-eyed & I definitely got some ideas. But I am also really tired of being told this is MY problem 1/n
to solve. Let's start here: Ladies, you need to somehow address the problem that you are SIGNIFICANTLY under-represented as editors, reviewers, & last authors. nature.com/articles/d4158…. Here's the preprint they're talking about - biorxiv.org/content/early/… 2/n
Here's another thing we #ladyscientists are supposed to solve from that paper - manuscripts with female last authors were significantly less likely to be accepted (50% versus 58%) when the reviewing panel was all-male.
Read 20 tweets
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We replicated 21 social science experiments in Science or Nature. We succeeded with 13. Replication effect sizes were half of originals. All materials, data, code, & reports: osf.io/pfdyw/, preprint socarxiv.org/4hmb6/, Nature Human Behavior nature.com/articles/s4156…
Using prediction markets we found that researchers were very accurate in predicting which studies would replicate and which would not. (blue=successful replications; yellow=failed replications; x-axis=market closing price) socarxiv.org/4hmb6/ nature.com/articles/s4156… #SSRP
Design ensured 90% power to detect an effect size half as large as original study. Replications averaged 5x the sample size of originals. We obtained original materials in all but one case, and original authors provided very helpful feedback on design. socarxiv.org/4hmb6/
Read 22 tweets
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In discussions on the climate ‘hothouse’ paper, it’s interesting to see how annoyed some people get by the word stewardship. It’s labeled as anti-conservative, socialist, etc.
To me, stewardship is a positive word, and I remember it was e.g. often used by christian-democrats in this country. Checking it in the dictionary, I found this. Seems rather appropriate, given the climate crisis we’re causing.
Maybe the annoyance that "Earth system stewardship" causes has to do with the need for international cooperation it implies, for those who love competition?
Read 57 tweets
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THREAD: @SecretaryZinke says "hot and dry weather" and "the fuels that overload our forests" are to blame for the #wildfires raging in California and the West. He got a couple things wrong. usatoday.com/story/opinion/… /1
Scientists have known for over a decade that higher temperatures are making wildfires worse. Fire season is longer, and fires are more intense now. science.sciencemag.org/content/313/57… /2
And what's causing those high temperatures? Higher CO2 emissions. And what's causing that? The burning of fossil fuels. /3 ipcc.ch/report/graphic…
Read 11 tweets
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#NeuroThursday is back this week to talk about the #neuroscience of #synesthesia. What does it mean for a letter to have an intrinsic color, for a number to have a distance? And why the heck would this trait evolve in humankind?
Synesthesia is when "stimulation of one sense automatically provokes a secondary perception in another." The secondary perception can be direct ("9's are red") or associative ("9's make me think of red"), either counts.
Synesthesia comes in countless forms, but color-based are the most frequent. The most well-known is "grapheme-color" synesthesia, where a grapheme (written shape, e.g. letter or numeral) has a color - like the opening picture.
Read 38 tweets

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