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Reflections on the one-year anniversary of the Mueller investigation: contrary to claims by his detractors, Special Counsel Robert Mueller has produced a remarkable record of prosecutorial achievement in a very short time, with more likely to come. 1/
Judged by the standards of his predecessors, Mueller has moved rapidly. The average length of these investigations is around three years, and complex matters take considerably longer: Whitewater endured for almost eight years and Iran-Contra for more than six. 2/
In 1 year, Mueller has already charged around 20 defendants with crimes including conspiracy, fraud, tax evasion and propaganda violations. He has collected 5 guilty pleas, including from President Trump’s former National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn. 3/
The fact that Mueller has not yet implicated POTUS should provide no comfort. Under DOJ rules, sitting POTUS can't be charged; but could he be an unindicted co-conspirator in a speaking indictment (which also would avoid limits on SC public reporting)? 4/
Mueller runs a tight ship, and that ship doesn’t leak. But based on public information, the core of the investigation likely includes at least 5 elements. 5/
1. Hacking and doxing, including theft and publication of emails from the DNC and Hillary Clinton's campaign chairman John Podesta by Russian military intelligence (the GRU) and Wikileaks. 6/
2. Propaganda, including charges against the Internet Research Agency for its social media activity, and against Paul Manafort and Rick Gates for unregistered lobbying on behalf of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich. 7/
3. Providing things of value, whether money to unwitting members of the Trump campaign or information offered to Donald Trump Jr. and others in the infamous meeting in Trump Tower. 8/
4. Blackmail, particularly where accepting a thing of value is a crime -- which turns the carrot into a stick. 9/
5. Obstructing or lying in connection with the investigation itself, including the guilty pleas of Flynn and others. 10/
We have seen charges from Mueller in 3 of these 5 areas, and we should expect to see more in the months ahead. 11/11
