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Jim Stanford

@JimboStanford

Absolutely brutal #CPI number out from #ABS today: prices fell 1.9% in June quarter. That's deflation at an annualized rate of 7.3%--by far the biggest price decline in Aussie postwar history. Inflation was too close to 0 *before* #COVID19, so there's no room to maneuver now...2

In case anyone thinks falling prices is somehow 'good' for consumers, keep in mind:
* Consumers stop buying (waiting for still lower prices).
* Real burden of debts grows .
* Investment is chilled by fear of falling nominal revenues.
Deflation is what happens in a depression ...3

Regarding the fear that big govt deficits and RBA bond-buying raises a big risk of hyper-inflation, keep in mind:
* We need more inflation, not less.
* Inflation will help reduce real burden of COVID deficits.
* RBA has undershot its CPI target for 6 straight years. ...4

Read 6 tweets

Jim Stanford

@JimboStanford

THREAD: Australia lost another 228,000 jobs in May. Employment is still falling (unlike US & Canada where some rebound occurred in May). Total job loss since February 838,000 (down 6.5%). Official unemployment rate up to 7.1%, but we know that's just the tip of the iceberg...2

There were 925,000 officially unemployed (didn't work, but available & looking). Falling labour participation since Feb represents another 640,000. And there's 1.5 million technically "employed" people who lost most or all of their hours. Realistically, unemployment is >20% ...3

Data confirms this is a feminised recession: women's employment down 7.4% since Feb, v. 5.6% for men. So why is Coalition govt so intent on cutting supports for women (like child care), while trumpeting male stimulus (like the idiotic home reno scheme)?...4

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Jim Stanford

@JimboStanford

@CntrFutureWork

THREAD on today's #ABS #GDP report, confirming Australia's 30-year recession-free streak is over. GDP shrank 0.3% in the March quarter (and will fall much more than that in the June quarter). So that marks the official start of a recession...2 @CntrFutureWork @unionsaustralia

Remember: the COVID lockdowns started just in the last 10 days of the March quarter. So they could not have impacted quarterly averages much. Rather, the seeds of this recession were planted long before #COVID19 hit our shores...3

The biggest drag contributing to lower GDP was a 1.1% fall in consumer spending: worst since 1986, 3rd worst on record. That wasn't due to COVID19: in fact, panic buying in March *boosted* retail sales. Lower consumer spending was due more to the #bushfires...4

Read 9 tweets

Centre for Future Work

@CntrFutureWork

@unionsaustralia

Does anyone actually believe the unemployment rate was just 6.2% last month?? Don't. All that number proves is how irrelevant the official unemployment rate has become. Let's walk through the math: ...2 @unionsaustralia #ausecon #ABS #LFS

Official unemployment increased by just 105,000 people. Not too bad, right? Wrong. 500,000 people lost work but 'left' the labour force. Why? To be included in the labour force, you must be available for work and actively seeking it. What was the point of that in April? ...3

Let's count them in actual unemployed. Then there's another 750,000 Australians who were 'employed' but didn't work a single hour. JobKeeper helps on that score. Include them & unemployment is now 2.1 million--not the official 823,000. That's 15% of the adjusted labour force ...4

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Centre for Future Work

@CntrFutureWork

There's only one word to describe today's #ABS jobs report: UGLY. 19,000 jobs lost: the worst of any month in over 3 years. Job losses in every category: full-time, part-time, men, women. Another decline in total hours worked: the 4th since April...2

Unemployment rate up again: to 5.32%, highest in 2 years. Unemployment rate has risen 0.4 points since Feb. Would have been worse, except for another fall in the participation rate: down for the 6th time this year. That means people are giving up looking...3

Combined with yesterday's report of a further slowing in wage growth, this is more evidence of profound labour market weakness. Will take a combination of strong job-creation measures & efforts to boost wages to get consumers spending (their purchases make up 1/2 of all GDP)...4

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AgroBioDiverse

@AgroBioDiverse

@CGIAR

45 scientists & policy wonks are meeting this week in Addis Ababa to make sure their agricultural research/development programs are run in compliance with national/international ABS laws and regulations. The meeting is coordinated by @CGIAR Genebank Platform and @ILRI. 1/n

@CGIAR

@CGIAR @ILRI ABS=access to biodiversity and sharing of benefits arising from its use. That means the @UNBiodiversity Nagoya Protocol, the @planttreaty and relevant national regulations. 2/n

@CGIAR

@CGIAR @ILRI @UNBiodiversity @planttreaty There's a bunch of research leaders and #genebank managers at the meeting. I'll add pix and other snippets to this thread as I get them from my "mole" at the meeting, who is apparently social media challenged. 3/n

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Robert's Rules v2.4 🦋

@Pamacious

1/ #CNP Members and Organizations
"The Council for National Policy (CNP) is a body that mixes large numbers of ostensibly mainstream conservatives with far-right and extremist ideologues, mostly from the far fringes of the religious right...
splcenter.org/hatewatch/2016…

2/ "What follows is a list of 18 of the hardest-line #CNP members and links to information about them and their groups, when available, published in the past by the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC). Groups designated by the SPLC as hate groups are marked with an asterisk (*).."

3/
Tony Perkins
*Family Research Council
Washington, D.C.
CNP Vice President

* Designated as hate group
#CNP

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