Thread by @yboulanger2

Very proud of this team effort "A regional integrated assessment of the impacts of #climatechange and of the potential #adaptation avenues for #Quebec’s #forests" is now published

A (very long) thread. Buckle up!

cdnsciencepub.com/doi/pdf/10.113…

@cflscf @NRCan

1/n

First, I would like to acknowledge the work of all my colleagues including Jesus, Annie Claude, Yves, @mariehbrice, @DominicCyr, Louis, Daniel, @GauthierSylvie9 , Pierre, @Guillemette_L , Mathieu, Maryse, Tadeusz, Martin-Hugues, @ethiffault , @Tremblay_Jun and Stephen
2/n

Quebec’s #forests goes from northern hardwood with sugar #maple, beech, hemlock in the south, to pure boreal black #spruce forests up north. Natural #disturbances, go from single-tree windthrow or mortality in the south, to large stand-replacing #fires in the north.
3/n

#Harvesting is a big thing in these forests, with commercial forests covering more than half a million sq km in the province. The #forest sector represented 20.6 billion $ of domestic economic impact in 2020.
4/n

Our work showed that Quebec’s forests are threatened by several aspects of #climatechange. These changes are multiple but are impacting forests differently on the territory.
5/n

For example, changes in #climate conditions will alter forest #productivity with great negative impacts on #boreal #conifer species, especially at the southern fringe of their distribution.
6/n

Also, #naturaldisturbances will be affected, with generally more fires in the boreal and changes in #insect #outbreak regimes.
7/n

When cumulated, these changes will translate in significant impacts on forest #landscape composition and structure. Decrease in overall #biomass, increase in deciduous pioneer species, decrease in late-succession boreal conifers within younger landscapes are all expected.
8/n

Frequent #fires triggering younger landscapes and more #regeneration failures in the #borealforest will result in loss of productive forests. Short-term climate-induced gains in #productivity at the very north of the commercial forests won’t compensate for these losses
9/n

The ability to maintain current #harvesting levels without adaptive actions could be considerably reduced, affecting wood #supplychain, with potential #timber supply shortages becoming more common due to decreasing harvestable volumes
10/n

#Carbon balance could also be altered. With a decrease in net ecosystem productivity, #climatechange will substantially reduce the capacity of #Quebec’s #forests to act as carbon sinks
11/n

Changes could directly affect wildlife habitat, potentially inducing shifts of species distribution ranges. For instance, #boreal #caribou habitat suitability will decrease as a result of increased #wildfires at the expense of old conifer stands preferred by caribou.
12/n

Also, changes in forest structure and composition will trigger better habitat for generalist bird species at the expanse of old-growth conifer specialists. Changes could be more important in the southernmost part of the province
13/n

Important changes to #indigenous livelihoods, #cultures, and #identities are expected.
We found that #climatechange will have a strong influence on values associated with mature coniferous forests, such as some species important to Indigenous #trappers
14/n

Under such considerations, #adaptation is necessary as virtually every sphere of #forest management and planning we studied will likely face several challenges in the context of #climatechange. Status quo is no longer an option.
15/n

Proactive strategy like variable retention #harvesting, combined with replanting of fire-adapted species in accessible areas is a promising strategy to maintain #productivity at lower costs against climate-induced increase in #regeneration failures in the #borealforests
16/n

Also, promoting #broadleaf species could help mitigate #fire-induced losses in productive forests. Increased broadleaf would decrease landscape #flammability, partially mitigating increases in severe fire weather conditions through negative fire-vegetation #feedbacks 17/n

Yet, #plantation efforts in these landscapes may not compensate for the climate-induced erosion of forest #productivity and may be prohibitively costly.

Integrating #fire a priori and reducing #AAC in strategic forest management planning may be beneficial
18/n

Regarding #carbon, our work show that there is no simple answer to whether increasing #conservation or more intensive #silviculture will be the most beneficial strategy for #climate #mitigation.
19/n

For instance, #silviculture can be used to increase ecosystem #carbon sinks in some landscapes, but emissions associated with the procurement and manufacturing of wood products and their decay must be considered as they heavily influence the net #carbonbalance.
20/n

Some challenges are to be expected as #climate change will be unfavorable to some species that are currently highly valued (e.g., spruces) while being beneficial to species mostly dedicated to products with a short lifespan and virtually no #substitution effect on markets
21/n

One of the biggest challenges to #biodiversity #conservation under a changing climate in eastern Canada will be to develop strategies to cope with increasing disturbance rates accruing from both harvesting and projected climate-induced increases in natural disturbances.
22/n

For example, reducing #harvest could help mitigate alterations in boreal #caribou habitat. Reducing harvest rates or protecting specific areas mitigate the loss of old conifer and mixed forests favored by caribou, irrespective of climate-induced increases in #fire activity
23/n

Likewise, ↘️harvesting levels would partially mitigate the climate-induced loss in mature mixed and coniferous forests, benefitting #birds
Key message: modulating harvest levels is effective when developing #biodiversity conservation strategies under #climatechange
24/n

The capacity of #Indigenous communities to adapt to changing environmental conditions has been demonstrated numerous times in the past.
Yet, strategies to limit #fire hazard on cultural #keystone locations, species, and infrastructure will have to be considered.
25/n

🚩🚩🚩🚩
So, key take-home messages:
Our work highlighted the necessity of integrating the expertise and perspectives of diverse knowledge-holders, as #climatechange impacts were revealed to also be diverse.
26/n

Also, a bottom-up approach, where problems are identified by local and regional partners was key to identify #vulnerabilities and test #adaptation measures. Such #collaborations and commitments should be set up early in the process and maintained over time.
27/n

There is still uncertainty in how today’s #forest management strategies and proposed #adaptation approaches in such an ecosystem with long-lived organisms will be able to cope with rapid #climatechange. We should therefore strengthen our capacity to detect #changes
28/n

Business-as-usual strategies are likely to result in a deterioration of several #ecosystems goods and services. Whether conservation, reduction, intensification or mixed strategies should be applied depends on the #vulnerability identified, as well as the regional context.
29/n

↘️#harvest could benefit several #ecosystemservices by: mitigating climate-induced changes on #caribou habitat, #bird diversity, #carbon storage and #Indigenous subsistence and cultural practices, stabilize #timber harvest rates and reduce post-fire #regeneration failures.
30/n

Strategies seeking to balance #timber supply and other forest values under climate change should be explored. Strategies aiming to improve functional redundancy in complex #ecosystems also show promise.
Testing a diversity of approaches will be paramount.
31/n

Our assessment encourages us to think about #forest #management and #adaptation to #climatechange in terms of a plurality of values, notably by taking into account the knowledge and perspectives of #Indigenous peoples.
32/n

Adaptive resources and approaches will be necessary to prevent potentially significant and severe alterations of #forest #ecosystem processes and forestry sector activities.

33/end

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