Yan Boulanger Profile picture
Mar 27, 2023 34 tweets 32 min read Read on X
Very proud of this team effort "A regional integrated assessment of the impacts of #climatechange and of the potential #adaptation avenues for #Quebec’s #forests" is now published

A (very long) thread. Buckle up!

cdnsciencepub.com/doi/pdf/10.113…

@cflscf @NRCan

1/n
First, I would like to acknowledge the work of all my colleagues including Jesus, Annie Claude, Yves, @mariehbrice, @DominicCyr, Louis, Daniel, @GauthierSylvie9 , Pierre, @Guillemette_L , Mathieu, Maryse, Tadeusz, Martin-Hugues, @ethiffault , @Tremblay_Jun and Stephen
2/n
Quebec’s #forests goes from northern hardwood with sugar #maple, beech, hemlock in the south, to pure boreal black #spruce forests up north. Natural #disturbances, go from single-tree windthrow or mortality in the south, to large stand-replacing #fires in the north.
3/n ImageImageImageImage
#Harvesting is a big thing in these forests, with commercial forests covering more than half a million sq km in the province. The #forest sector represented 20.6 billion $ of domestic economic impact in 2020.
4/n Image
Our work showed that Quebec’s forests are threatened by several aspects of #climatechange. These changes are multiple but are impacting forests differently on the territory.
5/n
For example, changes in #climate conditions will alter forest #productivity with great negative impacts on #boreal #conifer species, especially at the southern fringe of their distribution.
6/n Image
Also, #naturaldisturbances will be affected, with generally more fires in the boreal and changes in #insect #outbreak regimes.
7/n ImageImage
When cumulated, these changes will translate in significant impacts on forest #landscape composition and structure. Decrease in overall #biomass, increase in deciduous pioneer species, decrease in late-succession boreal conifers within younger landscapes are all expected.
8/n Image
Frequent #fires triggering younger landscapes and more #regeneration failures in the #borealforest will result in loss of productive forests. Short-term climate-induced gains in #productivity at the very north of the commercial forests won’t compensate for these losses
9/n Image
The ability to maintain current #harvesting levels without adaptive actions could be considerably reduced, affecting wood #supplychain, with potential #timber supply shortages becoming more common due to decreasing harvestable volumes
10/n
#Carbon balance could also be altered. With a decrease in net ecosystem productivity, #climatechange will substantially reduce the capacity of #Quebec’s #forests to act as carbon sinks
11/n Image
Changes could directly affect wildlife habitat, potentially inducing shifts of species distribution ranges. For instance, #boreal #caribou habitat suitability will decrease as a result of increased #wildfires at the expense of old conifer stands preferred by caribou.
12/n Image
Also, changes in forest structure and composition will trigger better habitat for generalist bird species at the expanse of old-growth conifer specialists. Changes could be more important in the southernmost part of the province
13/n Image
Important changes to #indigenous livelihoods, #cultures, and #identities are expected.
We found that #climatechange will have a strong influence on values associated with mature coniferous forests, such as some species important to Indigenous #trappers
14/n Image
Under such considerations, #adaptation is necessary as virtually every sphere of #forest management and planning we studied will likely face several challenges in the context of #climatechange. Status quo is no longer an option.
15/n
Proactive strategy like variable retention #harvesting, combined with replanting of fire-adapted species in accessible areas is a promising strategy to maintain #productivity at lower costs against climate-induced increase in #regeneration failures in the #borealforests
16/n Image
Also, promoting #broadleaf species could help mitigate #fire-induced losses in productive forests. Increased broadleaf would decrease landscape #flammability, partially mitigating increases in severe fire weather conditions through negative fire-vegetation #feedbacks 17/n Image
Yet, #plantation efforts in these landscapes may not compensate for the climate-induced erosion of forest #productivity and may be prohibitively costly.

Integrating #fire a priori and reducing #AAC in strategic forest management planning may be beneficial
18/n
Regarding #carbon, our work show that there is no simple answer to whether increasing #conservation or more intensive #silviculture will be the most beneficial strategy for #climate #mitigation.
19/n
For instance, #silviculture can be used to increase ecosystem #carbon sinks in some landscapes, but emissions associated with the procurement and manufacturing of wood products and their decay must be considered as they heavily influence the net #carbonbalance.
20/n Image
Some challenges are to be expected as #climate change will be unfavorable to some species that are currently highly valued (e.g., spruces) while being beneficial to species mostly dedicated to products with a short lifespan and virtually no #substitution effect on markets
21/n
One of the biggest challenges to #biodiversity #conservation under a changing climate in eastern Canada will be to develop strategies to cope with increasing disturbance rates accruing from both harvesting and projected climate-induced increases in natural disturbances.
22/n
For example, reducing #harvest could help mitigate alterations in boreal #caribou habitat. Reducing harvest rates or protecting specific areas mitigate the loss of old conifer and mixed forests favored by caribou, irrespective of climate-induced increases in #fire activity
23/n Image
Likewise, ↘️harvesting levels would partially mitigate the climate-induced loss in mature mixed and coniferous forests, benefitting #birds
Key message: modulating harvest levels is effective when developing #biodiversity conservation strategies under #climatechange
24/n Image
The capacity of #Indigenous communities to adapt to changing environmental conditions has been demonstrated numerous times in the past.
Yet, strategies to limit #fire hazard on cultural #keystone locations, species, and infrastructure will have to be considered.
25/n
🚩🚩🚩🚩
So, key take-home messages:
Our work highlighted the necessity of integrating the expertise and perspectives of diverse knowledge-holders, as #climatechange impacts were revealed to also be diverse.
26/n
Also, a bottom-up approach, where problems are identified by local and regional partners was key to identify #vulnerabilities and test #adaptation measures. Such #collaborations and commitments should be set up early in the process and maintained over time.
27/n
There is still uncertainty in how today’s #forest management strategies and proposed #adaptation approaches in such an ecosystem with long-lived organisms will be able to cope with rapid #climatechange. We should therefore strengthen our capacity to detect #changes
28/n Image
Business-as-usual strategies are likely to result in a deterioration of several #ecosystems goods and services. Whether conservation, reduction, intensification or mixed strategies should be applied depends on the #vulnerability identified, as well as the regional context.
29/n Image
↘️#harvest could benefit several #ecosystemservices by: mitigating climate-induced changes on #caribou habitat, #bird diversity, #carbon storage and #Indigenous subsistence and cultural practices, stabilize #timber harvest rates and reduce post-fire #regeneration failures.
30/n Image
Strategies seeking to balance #timber supply and other forest values under climate change should be explored. Strategies aiming to improve functional redundancy in complex #ecosystems also show promise.
Testing a diversity of approaches will be paramount.
31/n
Our assessment encourages us to think about #forest #management and #adaptation to #climatechange in terms of a plurality of values, notably by taking into account the knowledge and perspectives of #Indigenous peoples.
32/n
Adaptive resources and approaches will be necessary to prevent potentially significant and severe alterations of #forest #ecosystem processes and forestry sector activities.

33/end

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More from @yboulanger2

Jan 10
1/ Exciting research alert! Our new paper written by @hedvignenzen explores the potential of #assistedmigration and climate-informed #restoration in mitigating #climatechange impacts on #ecosystems. 🌱🌍



@cflscf
@NRCanesajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
2/ We used a #forest landscape model to assess the #restoration of western Canadian #boreal forests, severely impacted by #oilsands mining. Our focus? Planting tree populations adapted to future, warmer climates. 🌲🔥 Image
3/ Key finding: Planting trees better suited to a warmer #climate can offset #biomass loss due to #climatechange and #wildfires - but only under moderate climate scenarios. 📈 Image
Read 8 tweets
Jan 10
1/10 🌍 Excited to share our latest publication! We've developed a new framework to identify #criticalhabitats for wide-ranging #speciesAtRisk, particularly under the looming challenges of #climatechange.


@NRCan
@cflscf
@ECCCWildlifeScilink.springer.com/article/10.100…
2/10 🐦 Using the Canada Warbler and Wood Thrush as case studies, our research offers a 5-step approach to better understand and protect species with extensive ranges. Image
3/10 🌳 Step 1: Review the species’ distribution & life history. This foundational knowledge is crucial for effective habitat management. Image
Read 11 tweets
Aug 22, 2023
🔥Les #feuxdeforet cet été au Québec ont été dévastateurs.

Mais jusqu’à quel point le #changementclimatique peut y être associé?
Une nouvelle étude du @WWAttribution à laquelle j’ai participé a quantifié le tout!

Un🧵
1/… Image
D’abord, une récapitulation des faits :

Le mois de mai 2023 a été particulièrement sec au Québec. Les indices forêt-météo étaient très élevés.

Source :
2/… feux.escer.uqam.ca/en/we_monitori…


Image
Image
Image
Le 1e juin, une série d’orages frappent le Québec et la ⚡️⚡️allume plus de 150 #feuxdeforêt 🔥alors que la végétation est très inflammable suite à ces conditions très sèches.

3/…
Read 29 tweets
Jun 7, 2023
1/ Salut @CHOIRadioX ! Vos animateurs aiment beaucoup les données! C'est une très bonne nouvelle; c'est LA meilleure façon d'aborder une problématique, chapeau! Voici quelques données additionnelles qui pourraient parfaire votre argumentaire sur les #feuxdeforet au Québec
2/ Des feux, y en à ben des places dans le monde, et c'est normal. Au Canada aussi, on est un pays qui brule pas mal, ca 2 à 2.5Mha par année. Certaines zones brûlent pas mal (centre et ouest du pays), d'autres, pas mal moins (genre, le sud du Québec) ImageImage
Pas mal d'affaires influencent les feux, à différentes échelles temporelles et spatiales. À l'échelle du feu de camp par exemple, starter un feu avec du bois vert ou juste après avoir pisser dessus, c'est pas vargeux. Ça prend du temps chaud, sec, venteux Image
Read 25 tweets
Jul 5, 2021
Tragedy like the #LyttonFire is the very reason why we should talk about the impacts of #climatechange on these events and on #wildfires in Canada. A thread. 1/
2/
Obviously, #wildfires are strongly linked to #weather/#climate parameters. The warmer, the windier, the drier is the weather, the more fire ignition probabilities and spread
3/
#temperatures are increasing fast around the globe but way faster in Canada. 1.7C since 1948. Warming in especially important in the west, notably in spring and summer time
Read 30 tweets
Jun 26, 2020
#WildfireFire conducive conditions are likely to get extremely dangerous next week in #Ontario and western #Quebec. A short thread 1/n
First, conditions are already very dry, especially in western Quebec. Some rain in the last couple of days has improved the conditions but still, it is dryer than normal following two-months of much below average precipitations in Quebec 2/...
Beginning next week, both the Canadian and American models are forecasting widespread heat in Ontario and western Quebec. The extent and intensity of this heat depends on the models but still, forecast are jaw-dropping 3/...
Read 11 tweets

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