1/ $BTC #bitcoin "The Bart" Edition
- I really hate this motherf---ing momentum ignition algo
- so I thought I'd do an in depth look at it
- Starting here, we first see these patterns begin to emerge the first week of March, 2018.
- I really hate this motherf---ing momentum ignition algo
- so I thought I'd do an in depth look at it
- Starting here, we first see these patterns begin to emerge the first week of March, 2018.
2/ - L is March, R is May
- I believe @ThinkingUSD first noticed it
- Early on algo was sloppier, with a pattern, but less clearly defined
- We see evid. of algo tweaking. Big barts, little barts, varying frequencies.
- it was refined to what we see now, on R with more uniformity
- I believe @ThinkingUSD first noticed it
- Early on algo was sloppier, with a pattern, but less clearly defined
- We see evid. of algo tweaking. Big barts, little barts, varying frequencies.
- it was refined to what we see now, on R with more uniformity
3/ Anatomy
- I believe there are 3-4 variations built on the same pattern with a few minor differences
- Here are some key pieces
- It turns the chart into a series of rectangles.
- I believe there are 3-4 variations built on the same pattern with a few minor differences
- Here are some key pieces
- It turns the chart into a series of rectangles.
4/ Study methods:
- Between May 1 and May 31
- 44 "bart" patterns identified by my best judgement, using the 15m tf
- Each marked with a vertical line in center
- Green if pattern reversed, Red if pattern continued in original direction
- Tally was then taken, analysis to come
- Between May 1 and May 31
- 44 "bart" patterns identified by my best judgement, using the 15m tf
- Each marked with a vertical line in center
- Green if pattern reversed, Red if pattern continued in original direction
- Tally was then taken, analysis to come
5/ Results:
- 44 total barts IDd
- 30 reversals (eg Up, sideways, Down)
- 14 continuations (eg Down, sideways, down)
- These numbers suggest a 31.8% chance of continuation
and a 68.2% chance of reversal.
- 44 total barts IDd
- 30 reversals (eg Up, sideways, Down)
- 14 continuations (eg Down, sideways, down)
- These numbers suggest a 31.8% chance of continuation
and a 68.2% chance of reversal.
6/ We can use a Chi-square test to compare the actual distribution to the expected distribution.
- Assumes that the expected is 50/50 (not exactly true in a strong directional market)
- P-value says that there is a 92% chance these results are not random.
- Assumes that the expected is 50/50 (not exactly true in a strong directional market)
- P-value says that there is a 92% chance these results are not random.
ps please yell at me if I did that part wrong. I haven't needed to do real math in forever
7/ Discussion:
- refinement of pattern likely means refinement of algo; someone with a lot of money is invested in profiting off of short tf markets.
- I am unsure how or if this affects the high tfs (>4hr)
- Bot is running on bitmex.
- refinement of pattern likely means refinement of algo; someone with a lot of money is invested in profiting off of short tf markets.
- I am unsure how or if this affects the high tfs (>4hr)
- Bot is running on bitmex.
8/ CONCLUSION
- Trading barts IS EFFECTIVE with a 2/3 success rate
- Barts + trapped in options range = trading hell
- I think its likely competing algos will case unexpected behavior in the markets in the future as more and bigger players enter the space.
- LEARN RISK MANAGEMENT
- Trading barts IS EFFECTIVE with a 2/3 success rate
- Barts + trapped in options range = trading hell
- I think its likely competing algos will case unexpected behavior in the markets in the future as more and bigger players enter the space.
- LEARN RISK MANAGEMENT
PS I think you can push the probabilities to 3 or 4:1 by combining other analysis with the pure bart trading strat.
