Key pts from the weekend for Brexit:
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Reports of delays in White Paper v.likely to mean nothing of substance from HMG before #EUCO at end of the month
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That's important because EU has said it needs to see 'substantial progress' on IE dimension by then, if it's not to double-down on Option C backstop.
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HMG still not willing/able to produce detailed written proposals makes it effectively impossible to argue that condition of progress is met
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Non-progress in June means a tricky summer, as HMG will have to make big strides, while EU isn't very focused (given IT and summer break)
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So, a very busy Sept/Oct.
In fact, I'd argue this makes a WA deal in Oct very much less likely, given the lack of mvt since March: too many bits to resolve in too little time w too much pain
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In fact, I'd argue this makes a WA deal in Oct very much less likely, given the lack of mvt since March: too many bits to resolve in too little time w too much pain
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That pushes final deal back to Dec.
So if you want a WA in place, you'd better hope no-one messes around on ratification, because there will be absolutely no time
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So if you want a WA in place, you'd better hope no-one messes around on ratification, because there will be absolutely no time
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Incidentally, that also makes Parl't vote even less 'meaningful' than it was going to be
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All of which brings us back to this weekend, with the reminder that HMG hasn't got contingency plans in place for what might be a serious disruption to 'normal service'
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I'll take 'Armageddon' with a pinch of salt, but I'm also not making travel plans to EU for 30 March 2018
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Indeed, scale of effects isn't main concern, but rather degree of ability to cope.
WP delay and no contingency planning are part of same piece
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WP delay and no contingency planning are part of same piece
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summary: chances of a 'no-deal' outcome are trending up
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