A short thread. The shit show that is the backstop debate currently taking place in Britain perfectly exemplifies the state of where the UK is at with Brexit:
The UK agreed to the backstop in December. The agreed EU-UK text states that a backstop is required “in the absence of other solutions” not in the absence of other solutions by some random date assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… 
The text is also clear that Northern Ireland is a unique situation. Indeed the government’s own website says this. It also states that the backstop is required in all circumstances regardless of the nature of the future UK-EU relationship. Again, the UK agreed to this.
What has happened since Dec.? UK has failed to come up with a customs solution that would work, and solve the border issue in Northern Ireland. So all focus is now on the backstop, which is key to ensuring an exit deal (including transition) vs crashing out of the EU with no deal
What does all this say about broader Brexit talks:
1. The fight over a defined end date is a waste of time - the EU unlikely to accept: it’s not what the UK agreed to in Dec. (and it would defeat the point of a backstop. Indeed, it wouldn’t even be a backstop)
1. The fight over a defined end date is a waste of time - the EU unlikely to accept: it’s not what the UK agreed to in Dec. (and it would defeat the point of a backstop. Indeed, it wouldn’t even be a backstop)
2. Some argue that a solution to Northern Ireland is easy. If that were really the case, they’d have no problem accepting a backstop until that easy solution is in place.
3. The same group also argue that “no deal is better than a bad deal”. Put aside the fact that no deal would be catastrophic, the UK government hasn’t prepared for a no deal – it’s an empty threat.
4. Others argue that staying in the customs union alone would solve all this. It won’t (as PM May and UK negotiators have been told multiple times).
5. Over the past months you’ve had ministers claiming with “100% certainty” they’d be no bill, no transition, dozens of trade deals struck and ready to go one second after midnight 30 March 2019 etc. etc. - pretty much none of what they said would happen has happened
In short: everyone is running out of road as the Brexit exit date, 30 March 2019, looms – And changing prime minister or David Davis resigning would do little to change this, cabinet divisions or the fact that there is no parliamentary majority for any one type of Brexit
Finally, none of this will change without an honest and open debate about the UK’s red lines, an acknowledgement of the trade-offs that these imply, and how they are in many ways irreconcilable with the promises of “Global Britain”
