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Jonathan Portes @jdportes
, 4 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
@bbcnickrobinson @HenryNewman That's wrong, Nick. Treasury spending/borrowing plans rely on OBR forecasts of future tax revenues which in turn rely on OBR forecasts of future growth.
@bbcnickrobinson @HenryNewman [This is precisely why we *know* that, according to the government's own tax & spending plans, there is no (or rather a negative) "Brexit dividend": the OBR has already reduced its forecasts for future tax revenues by more than the savings from reduced contributions.]
@bbcnickrobinson @HenryNewman What we can say with certainty is that the government/HMT *cannot* make spending plans on the basis of a "Brexit growth dividend": it is legally required to make plans on the basis of the OBR's forecasts, which incorporate a significant growth hit.
@bbcnickrobinson @HenryNewman Perfectly fine for May or Johnson to say they believes in Minford's fictional & discredited numbers for Brexit growth boost. But HMT legally required to plan on basis of OBR forecasts, which incorporate hit to growth/tax revenues. So govt *cannot* plan to spend "Brexit dividend.
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