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Holger Hestermeyer @hhesterm
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
The Airbus #Brexit risk assessment (linked) as such is not very surprising. But it explains why the process is going so badly (short thread) airbus.com/content/dam/ch…
Airbus’ statement has been greeted with a variety of reactions. Among the negatives: The Telegraph accuses it of “Project Fear”, people have alluded it is spreading EU propaganda, have pointed to EU Member States as owners...
... and among the more hilarious reactions: a conservative MEP proposed nationalisation (you read that right, a Tory going full Venezuela) and an MP wants assurances from the government that Brexit won’t have negative effects (how should they do that?)
What is the effect of all this bad press? Companies will shut up. What is the effect of politicians threatening and insulting Airbus? Others will decide in silence and do what they have to do. And they’ll be very nice when they speak
And so a government that does not want to listen will end up hearing only what it wants to hear. Come what may. Because the job of a CEO is to do what is good for the company. Not sacrifice its reputation to correct misconceptions of politicans.
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Anand with a cheerful thread on where we are and where we are going. With some rather stunning details on what MPs think. Some quick thoughts as to trade (thread)
A quick FTA with China and the US is possible. It implies doing what they want. US policy is explicitly called America first. So the real question is: is this good for the UK?
Will those agreements compensate for losses of trade with the EU? Every serious economic study seems to indicate no.
Read 6 tweets
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In a letter to the French Coalition for Cultural Diversity Macron makes explicit the French position on trade in audiovisual services under a future free trade agreement between EU and UK (thread)
The most relevant para. of the letter is here.
It states that France will seek an exclusion of audiovisual services from the negotiation mandate of the Council following the principle of the protection of cultural diversity.
Read 4 tweets
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Any infrastructure expert out there who can tell us what was learned from the artificial traffic jam?
@RHARodMcKenzie - you wrote that the test was too little too late, could you say what can be learned from the one coducted? I am not an infrastructure expert, but I like to believe at least something must be learned if 50,000 pounds are invested in the exercise?
@RHARodMcKenzie The Hauliers’ Association said the “trial went well”, but is there any good explanation what that means? To the untrained eye this merely seems to indicate we successfully formed a traffic jam. @RHANews
Read 3 tweets

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It's not just Rolls Royce... Here's what we can conclude (short #thread):

theguardian.com/business/2018/…
1. Although no manufacturing jobs are being moved, the EU's aviation body will take the place of the CAA. Clearly this is a work transfer.

2. UK aviation companies are showing they lack confidence in the UK government to provide safeguards.

...
3. There is turbulence ahead as aerospace manufacturers weigh where to invest. They operate closely integrated supply chains, so expect them to move as one body.

4. Much depends what Rolls, Bombardier and Airbus do. They will take tens of thousands of jobs with them if they go.
Read 3 tweets
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It seems @YouTube removed the footage of the Q & A statement on the visit to the UK, by @Alston_UNSR, UN Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty & human rights. @theresa_may & @AmberRuddHR both dismiss it - judge for yourself. Here it is in document form: ohchr.org/Documents/Issu…
I am going to use this thread to share some of the data that is referenced from this report. Because it matters and isn't shared enough.
A new measure of poverty for the UK: The final report of the Social Metrics Commission. September 2018. Full report - socialmetricscommission.org.uk/MEASURING-POVE…
Via @jrf_uk Destitution in the UK (June) 2018. Full Report: jrf.org.uk/report/destitu…

"1,550,000 people, including 365,000 children, were destitute in the UK during 2017. They could not afford to buy the bare essentials we all need to eat, stay warm, dry, & clean."
Read 27 tweets
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Un altro durissimo editoriale del giornalone, ormai organo ufficiale di ‘Brassels’. Offese e minacce esplicite. Sono nervosissimi. #thread ft.com/content/be3262…
Cani sciolti anti sistema, destra anti-immigrati e tecnocrati fantocci, interessati solo al prossimo successo elettorale. Così viene descritto il nostro Governo. 😱
Ma i nostri stanno sottovalutando IMercati. I corridoi del potere greco sono disseminati dei corpi di simili politici. Chiaro il messaggio? Qui non siamo più alla testa di cavallo nel letto, qui siamo alla bomba sotto l’uscio di casa. È un editoriale non firmato. È la LINEA.
Read 4 tweets
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BOOM! Se il FT, nelle ultime settimane più che mai organo ufficiale della Commissione, scrive questo, significa che vogliono lo scontro e la nostra resa per mano de IMercati. Sembra una dichiarazione di guerra... #thread
ft.com/content/3d4707…
Si parla di ‘acque inesplorate’ circa il futuro del confronto con Roma e, soprattutto, si dà conferma della bocciatura (arrivata qualche minuto fa) anticipata rispetto alla scadenza per ‘accelerare il passo’ della disputa che potrebbe portare a sanzioni (mai accaduto prima d’ora)
Il respingimento del bilancio era considerato una ‘opzione nucleare’ ma, di fronte a quel deficit (oggi imparo che 2,4 è più vicino a 3 che a 2) la #UE ha le mani legate (loro erano buoni, ma sono stati costretti a farlo). Ora abbiamo tempo fino al 14/nov. Hanno fretta.
Read 6 tweets
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Someone needs to introduce @JLongworthLML (a) to rules of origin and the difference between a CU and zero tariffs and (b) to basic points about how the single market works.
As for this rather Leninist tweet by @JLongworthLML, any company which has decided to base production here on the basis of genuinely frictionless access to the rest of the EU would be rather foolish if it wasn’t now reconsidering its business model.
Indeed, this explanation of the issues from Airbus more or less reflects the legal advice that I would give. airbus.com/content/dam/ch…
Read 6 tweets
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Airbus on “severe disruption/ unrecoverable delays/ billions in lost turnover” sign of disbelief of exasperated businesses on direction of travel on Brexit, finally going public, not with threats, but with logical consequences of political choices:
airbus.com/content/dam/ch…
The document is a “Risk Assessment” of the company that up until now makes up to 40% by value of its planes in the UK (if you include engines). Just in time delivery, no rules of origin in Customs Union, EASA Single Market safety checks - Airbus in UK built on this system 1/10
10,000 original Airbus aircraft parts originate in UK under EU rules - “All UK companies will need to transfer design approvals, product approvals and maintenance approvals into the EU” if theres No Deal ans so Airbus says it’s “increasingly concerned” about lack of progress 2/10
Read 14 tweets

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