Let's break the usual rules here and think about the EU might respond to the events of Friday to Monday in Brexitlandia... 1/
Policy wise the Chequers 'medium' Brexit doesn't work for the EU, it's not a Free Trade Agreement with Irish border backstop, it's not a close economic relationship with four freedoms etc. Arguably it only just acknowledges the choices 2/
But the EU doesn't want a chaotic or no-deal Brexit, as that makes all the Ireland efforts redundant. So one would assume that particularly with a new Secretary of State there's an opportunity for some intensive dialogue 3/
The key question from the EU will surely be - is this the first step of a process towards EEA, or as far as the PM is willing to go. If towards EEA, what's then the trust building mechanisms that allows this to be delivered. And yes these have to be at political level 4/
If this is as far as the PM is willing to go then the EU's presumed approach would be to focus on the Withdrawal Agreement, see if this can be completed, but prepare contingency like extension, no deal, and crisis Summit in the Autumn. 5/
The new SoS relation with Barnier will be crucial. Robbins can do the tech stuff, but the EU will want to know what is happening at the political level, what is deliverable and what is not. Problem will come if the new SoS is too partisan to be accurate on the politics 6/
As professional negotiators the EU will probably be worried that not everything can be done in time - either the backstop agreement or what makes it unnecessary. There's a lot of detail to work through. UK readiness will be seen in the white paper 7/
Conclusion. The identity of the new SoS is crucial to avoiding crisis in the coming months. They need to be able to build relationships, get detail, and provide the political dimension to talks quickly. And focus on the Commission not Member States 8/ end
