Everything I know, or think I know, about fantasy football. The thread begins here. This will not end, and will evolve.
First, and unequivocally most important to me, watch the games. Statistics, and analytics, can give you a large advantage, but you must know how they translate to the field.
Most statistics have more questions than answers. You have to be able to be able to tie things together. There’s more than one player on the field at all times, so create a linkage chain. This will not be easy, so be patient with yourself.
Use everyone at your disposal. Listen to the both the worst and the best, and try to truly understand the processes used. Once you have a base, begin to know and attempt to adopt good habits.
Let others do some of the work for you. This sport is too large, and far too demanding to master yourself. Find great voices, and feel free to question that which you disagree with, or struggle to understand.
The great minds will help. Seek them out. This may be your toughest challenge, but your ability to stay attentive will be rewarded.
Do not come flying out of the gates and attempt to be a scout. This is a huge process. Learn in small doses. Attempt to find singular aspects of successes and failures and expand, but never forget the field of play.
If you want to win in fantasy football, spend a large percentage of your time on game theory. This is your edge.
I would focus first on the market of players, and how they change year to year. Demand and profit have a predictability. Explore, test, fail, test, and profit.
Longevity only matters if you refuse to, or cannot, make a trade. Production will always carry weight, especially if you’re willing to sell when people need it the most.
Be willing to sell anyone, at any time. Winning teams are built on the backs of flexibility.
Buy injured, but understand the market. Youth can maintain value in injury, but only if failure has not been shown, and only for a certain time period.
Age and injury can be a fatal combination. While the production of that 30 year old runningback may be tempting, his footing on value has worn.
Read a lot. Talk less.
Understand that you’re are going to adopt biases. It’s a large task just to be able to recognize them, but stay vigilant with yourself. Keep your mind open.
But biases are your lifeblood; Not necessarily your own, but your leaguemates, and the entire industry in general create huge windows for profit.
This goes far beyond know that your leaguemate is a fan of a specific team or player, this is about knowing what the industry wants before they want it.
Everything comes in waves of talent, and the subsequent production that follows. There’s a reason why everyone is drafting running backs today, but faded in earlier years.
Production influences analysis. Everything else is secondary.
What does this mean? Snaps, targets, and volume equal production. Production equals demand. You can profit here.
Production is not necessarily tied to future production, only current opportunity. Talent holds the longevity of opportunity outside injury.
And injury, is your window. Think of it as a broadway show where the lead vocalist has lost their voice. The understudy takes over the performance.
Now what does it take for the understudy to usurp the main vocalist? Shown talent.
Now happens if the main vocalist is good, and everything is running smoothly, but there’s an opportunity to bring in a stronger voice? You know what happens.
Beware the inflexible, and arrogant. We, as an industry, are not dealing with certainties. We hope for probability, and aim for small notable victories.
Fantasy football has breaking points, and we push beyond them. We overcorrect, and run past our beginnings. React small, but react.
Beware statistical cutoffs that feign predictability. Why should 370 carries matter more than 360? Why does being drafted at 33 put in you a closer measured position to 63 than it does 32?
Imagine a line of ice cubes on a flat surface. As they melt how far does the water flow? Think of this as flowing analysis. If the ice cubes never melt, think of this as rigid analysis.
Rigid analysis is often used to back up a position but lacks nuance. Statistics, although rigid in themselves, should be melted down until they flow into the field.
Every statistic, taken as a singular form, is just a number.
There is no proper level of injury predictability in our industry. Do not measure health over talent without an extreme.
There’s people in this industry that move the value on players values. Pay attention to the words of Silva, Berry, and Clay, amongst others.
You don’t have to agree with every aspect of their analysis, but definitely pay attention. If they can increase value on a player, or begin a new level of hype, buying early can make a profit.
A player never needs to step on the field for you to make a profit. You can ride momentum up an ADP ladder and trade off when you see fit.
While the love for a player grows, don’t hop on blindly. Watch the player, find scouting videos, and look for holes. Sometimes escaping a trap play is as beneficial as finding a productive gem.
