A thread on why no-one's happy about Brexit:
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Two big reasons why this is:
The referendum, and
The nature of Brexit itself
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The referendum, and
The nature of Brexit itself
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#EUref offered a binary outcome: remain or leave
However, it didn't specific what either would consist of, in binding terms at least
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However, it didn't specific what either would consist of, in binding terms at least
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It wasn't an election, so no new gvt, plus no manifesto commitments either
That meant both sides cld pitch for votes however they liked
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That meant both sides cld pitch for votes however they liked
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Thus both sides built up huge coalitions of voters, bound only by decision that their interests would be served by voting a particular way
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So intrinsically the case that the winning coalition would contain many disappointed voters, who'd not voted for whatever particular version actually happened
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(NB would have happened if Remain won too)
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Put differently, Leave campaign didn't care why you voted Leave, just that you did
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However - and this moves us to the 2nd element - having chosen to leave, also evident that costs have to be apportioned
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Costs come in two flavours.
1st, there's the transitional costs: moving from status quo ante to new situation implies change, and thus costs
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1st, there's the transitional costs: moving from status quo ante to new situation implies change, and thus costs
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But also, 2nd, there are more permanent costs, arising for reduced level of economic integration, whatever form of Brexit occurs
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(NB it's not that no-one can benefit, but that overall there is a cost)
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As shape of Brexit becomes clearer (even if Chequers isn't necessarily it), so too do costs, so to be expected that more people are unhappy about it
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Brexit is and always has been an exercise in apportioning costs.
That further collapses the #EUref coalition, as chickens come home to roost, scaring away the unicorns
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That further collapses the #EUref coalition, as chickens come home to roost, scaring away the unicorns
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The difficult will be that opposing one form of Brexit does not necessarily make finding another, more acceptable form any easier
All forms will have costs to someone
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All forms will have costs to someone
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Thus outcome might say more about relative power/influence of groups to resist costs, than about intrinsic merits of that outcome
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