How on earth is the EU supposed to react to the shambles in London? That's a genuine question. But the answer is surely to continue playing with a straight bat, making it clear that if HMG reneges on agreements regarding NI, €, or citizens there will be no transition period.
As it has consistently stated from the beginning.
But perhaps it should also be more specific in pointing out what the consequences of a no-deal no-transition Brexit will be. That could be construed as a threat, but as things stand UK citizens are likely to find out the hard way on 30/3/19. Maybe we should start talking about it
The crucial point is that this is not about "punishment"; many things that are now possible will become legally impossible once the legal framework that makes them possible disappears. Not a subtle point! But the implications need to be discussed more than they have been to date.
And how should the Irish government react? They are in an astonishingly difficult position. They claim that there will not be a hard border under any circumstances. This may be a sensible negotiating position, I am not in their shoes. But the claim is false.
Unless Northern Ireland remain inside a CU-SM-VAT relationship with the EU, there has to be a border. Dublin has to be very careful not to sound like those Brexiteers who falsely claim that a border can be avoided by "just not building one". And I'm sure it will be careful.
But if, as has always been very possible, and now seems quite likely, there is a no deal Brexit next March, a hard border will reappear and the government will have to decide what to do next. And the choice will be a difficult one:
Insist that for a post-Brexit UK to do any sort of a deal with the EU, the backstop agreed in December avoiding a hard border be applied. Or forget about the border and go along with a free trade deal that will limit the economic damage.
At the end of this piece I said that we needed an honest debate about these two options. I favour the former option, and I think it's probably fair to say that @danobrien20 would favour the latter. Correct me if I am wrong Dan!
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As long as the talks have not yet broken down, IRL can duck that choice, since the best solution for everyone would obviously involve no new borders anywhere for anyone, and we are rightly pursuing that objective.
But if there is a car crash in March the choice will no longer be duck-able, for either IRL or the rest of the EU. As I said at the top of this thread I favour consistency. We've argued all along that the 3 divorce items have to be satisfactorily resolved before discussing a deal
If that was ever reasonable, and I believe that it is very reasonable, then it will continue to be so on March 30 2019. But some will disagree.
Having said all of that let's see what happens to the customs union amendment later today.
