Love insightful perspectives of @Sime0nStylites @jdportes and Pete North on the unfolding #brexit debacle. Like many, I'm sense-making about whether there's a non-catastrophic way through, given fundamental errors in negotiating strategy so far. Thread /1
First, polls show "Remain" is the most popular single option, and other threads argue why a #peoplesvote is the right thing. That's not what this thread is about. The Q is whether errors to date have foreclosed any non-catastrophic outcomes for those who prefer to leave /2
The EU position, arguably reflected in A50 is to set a deadline, then require a withdrawal agreement to be concluded, and then to negotiate future trade arrangements. This approach is well designed (understandably) to exert collective dominance over any leaving member. /3
Once the A50 clock is running, then the effect of the EU rejecting proposals from the exiting member is that the other party's position weakens over time, as the A50 deadline approaches, given a disorderly exit is most costly to the exiting member. /4
This demonstrates why, as I said straight after the referendum, the govt's biggest strategic mistake would be to trigger the A50 clock before doing its preparations and securing agreement with the EU on sequence. Both Conservatives & Labour leaders failed to see this /5
So, with 66% A50 days gone, no progress, & little resolution of mutually contradictory negotiating objectives held by UK govt, does the now rising possibility of economic damage to UK & EU from disorderly exit open any escape routes? Is a 'damage limitation deal' possible? /6
Those who know say 'not in the time left'. Any recovery would have to start with unilateral withdrawal of the A50 notice, positioned as a full 'reset' to the negotiations. This, rather than a limited extension, would reverse out the negotiating bind the govt put itself in /7
There would then be a period of deadlock. EU refuse to commence negs 'til A50 triggered & its preferred sequence adopted (trade terms once A50 deadline expires). UK say A50 triggered once 'integrated heads of agreement' about withdrawal, transition, & future trading agreed /8
During the deadlock, UK govt has to get its act together and resolve the inconsistencies and non-credible elements of the package it will present, and the private least favourable outcomes for each variable it will accept. /9
Leavers would get v twitchy as they perceive the momentum to leave will dissipate during extended deadlock, and because they know demography is against them (strongest supporter base the >65s is being replaced each year by pro remain youth) /10
On the other hand, UK recovers its negotiating dignity, both sides find limbo not to suit either party (EU has to treat UK as a full member again, rebate remains, future budget planning becomes difficult, relocation of UK based agencies cancelled etc) /11
With the prospect that UK doesn't give up the timing of exit, nor rebate, nor vetos, until it is satisfied with future arrangements, negotiating power is rebalanced. UK must abandon unicorns, but a negotiating plan with realistic time to execute can be adopted. /12
So, I think that there is a technically feasible way through, which is highly unlikely to be taken, but the scariness of disorderly exit just might make possible. What shape that deal should be is for another thread. /Ends
