Real-time climate attribution of extreme weather events: what are scientists saying to reporters? I've noticed some common theme.
(1) Future climate modeling to 2100 means we EXPECT to see more heat waves & fires in the future BUT we have not analyzed this case yet.
(1) Future climate modeling to 2100 means we EXPECT to see more heat waves & fires in the future BUT we have not analyzed this case yet.
(2) 'foretaste'
Drought, strong winds & high temperatures are 'likely to be replicated in future' & aggravated by climate change
Greece fires 'premature to attribute to climate change'
“a foretaste of what weather extremes we are threatened by as the climate crisis progresses”
Drought, strong winds & high temperatures are 'likely to be replicated in future' & aggravated by climate change
Greece fires 'premature to attribute to climate change'
“a foretaste of what weather extremes we are threatened by as the climate crisis progresses”
(3) NY Times added a paragraph to their story with this sentence:
"extreme conditions are in line with patterns that scientists attribute to climate change"
"extreme conditions are in line with patterns that scientists attribute to climate change"
(4) Grist connects the dots:
"striking examples of climate change playing out"
Future modeling used as evidence:
"Greece and much of the Mediterranean region is projected to turn into desert over the next several decades"
"striking examples of climate change playing out"
Future modeling used as evidence:
"Greece and much of the Mediterranean region is projected to turn into desert over the next several decades"
In summary, the articles don't provide any specific data analysis, new research, or information that is specific to Greece -- but theories or hypotheses about the impacts of climate change on current / future weather conditions like extreme temperatures and rainfall (drought)
The problem with the real-time attribution during the news cycle is that by time the scientists properly do the data analysis & provide firm fact/figures of the climate impact, it's not a news story but a literature review. No one is going to read it.
The hand wavy phrases I highlighted in scientist quotes will get more hyperbolic & doomsday sounding.
Media needs to hire or contract or do something in order to get data analysts on staff that are able to quickly take climate/weather data and do real-time attribution.
Media needs to hire or contract or do something in order to get data analysts on staff that are able to quickly take climate/weather data and do real-time attribution.
