Sea Of Troubles: Azov Emerging As 'Tinderbox' In Russia-Ukraine Conflict — My dispatch from Mariupol, which, after months of growing friction, is shaping up to be the latest flash point in the four-year schism between Moscow and Kyiv. rferl.org/a/sea-of-troub…
While much of the world wasn't watching, Russia began militarizing the Sea of Azov & imposing a "sea blockade" in May. Its war ships now patrol the shallow waters & the FSB has detained 148+ ships, causing serious economic damage to Ukrainian ports. rferl.org/a/sea-of-troub…
Ukraine is scrambling to respond, as these Sea Guards told me. But there's little, if anything, they can do about it, thanks to a 2003 deal signed by Putin & then-president Kuchma that makes the sea territory jointly controlled by the "brotherly nations." rferl.org/a/sea-of-troub…
In its own show of force, Ukraine's military conducted 2-day helicopter drills over the Sea of Azov in late July. Days earlier, @poroshenko had ordered measures in connection with the ship detentions, including possibly providing escorts through the sea.
Activists in Mariupol have lashed out at Kyiv for not paying enough attention to the escalating crisis. "We have Russian vessels floating nearby, ready to attack from the sea. And each provocation may turn this situation into a war," one told me. rferl.org/a/sea-of-troub…
But the sea blockade is the most pressing issue. As one analyst said, Russia's plan appears "aimed, first, at delivering economic losses to Ukraine, and, secondly, at creating greater tensions in cities like Mariupol, where people are making their living in sea trade & fishing." 
And it seems to be working. The ship detentions are growing in frequency & duration, with the average being ~54 hours in past weeks. One shipping co. director said losses due to delays can range from $3K-$13K per boat. Some vessels are now refusing to enter the Sea of Azov.
Mariupol & nearby Berdyansk are home to Ukraine's two major steel- and grain-exporting ports on the Sea of Azov & hundreds of private fishing companies. If business dries up & access to fishing areas is lost, tens of thousands will lose their livelihood. rferl.org/a/sea-of-troub…
Everyone in Mariupol fears the situation will grow more tense as the Ukrainian presidential election nears in March 2019 and Russia looks to turn up the heat. "Honestly, I don't know what we can do," said one Sea Guard, adding that they are greatly outmatched by the Russians.
Something interesting that didn't make it into my story. Remember the mysterious texts that Ukrainian solders were getting, calling them "just meat" & exerting psych pressure? Mariupol fishermen have been getting similar ones urging them to protest the gov & give Russia the sea.
