Profile picture
Stephen Wolf @PoliticsWolf
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
If I had to guess right now, I'd predict GOP loses 40-50 House seats in November after things move away from them in Sept-Oct like the president's party in the last 3 wave midterms. But even still, I could see gerrymandering costing Dems >20 seats based on my own nonpartisan maps
Unless 2018 turns into a Dem tsunami the likes we haven't seen since 1974, I just don't see an outcome where gerrymandering doesn't cost Dems a significant number of seats. Yes, some gerrymanders will fail in November. But they won't *backfire* & help Dems
There's assuredly a level of a Dem wave that would actually cause those GOP gerrymanders to backfire. But it's historically large & still doesn't negate the fact that the GOP likely would've lost the House in 2012 & possibly 2016 too withot gerrymandering
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Stephen Wolf
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member and get exclusive features!

Premium member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year)

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!