1/ Over the last few weeks, myself, @JasonJHunter and others have laid out the regulatory disruptions UK-EU trade will face under a purely No-Deal Brexit.
My thread:
One of Jason's threads:
How should you treat this information?
My thread:
One of Jason's threads:
How should you treat this information?
2/ Obviously, you must decide if what we lay out is credible.
For my part, my analysis relied on a plain reading of the EU's Brexit Preparatory Notices.
These are official communications the EU Commission put out, formally advising business of what to accept.
For my part, my analysis relied on a plain reading of the EU's Brexit Preparatory Notices.
These are official communications the EU Commission put out, formally advising business of what to accept.
3/ Now, you could accept that we've interpreted the documents correctly but still reject that what's in those documents will actually come to pass or be enforced.
There are a number of ways you could arrive at that position in good faith. Let's discuss them.
There are a number of ways you could arrive at that position in good faith. Let's discuss them.
4/ Position one: You believe Brexit or at least the trade side of it, will be delayed or overturned.
This is a political prediction and so inherently risky. In deciding what preparations to make, consider that no major party in the UK currently supports this.
This is a political prediction and so inherently risky. In deciding what preparations to make, consider that no major party in the UK currently supports this.
5/ Position two: You believe the EU will 'blink' and not implement what's in the Preparatory notes because it will be self-defeating.
Possible, but again, risky. Remember that for the EU treating the UK as a 3rd country post-Brexit is the default. It's what's on the books.
Possible, but again, risky. Remember that for the EU treating the UK as a 3rd country post-Brexit is the default. It's what's on the books.
6/ Position three: You believe international law will prevent the EU from implementing what's in the preparatory notes.
It won't. I, @StevePeers, @CoppetainPU and a host of others have explained why.
Do not count on this. Please. PLEASE.
It won't. I, @StevePeers, @CoppetainPU and a host of others have explained why.
Do not count on this. Please. PLEASE.
7/ Offering the UK a special status post Brexit in the absence of a negotiated deal is going to be tough to reach EU consensus on.
Time is also running short. Brexit impacts dozens of legal instruments which explicitly reference Member status. You can't fix that last minute.
Time is also running short. Brexit impacts dozens of legal instruments which explicitly reference Member status. You can't fix that last minute.
8/ Position four: You believe a 'deal' covering most aspects of EU-UK trade will be reached before April 29th.
This is possible, but keep in mind negotiators often issue positive statements to the press when consensus is actually miles away.
Neglecting preparations is risky.
This is possible, but keep in mind negotiators often issue positive statements to the press when consensus is actually miles away.
Neglecting preparations is risky.
9/ Position five: You believe a series of small patches on individual issues will prevent damage to your industry.
Again, possible, but worth seeking specific assurances on the issues you care about from your elected representatives and officials.
Again, possible, but worth seeking specific assurances on the issues you care about from your elected representatives and officials.
10/ Let's say you accept the disruption will happen. Whether you think that disruption is a small price to pay for Brexit or that disaster, there are things you can do to prepare.
11/ Step 1: Read the Preparatory Notices relevant to you. Beyond the ones for your industry, make sure you consider the ones covering banking and insurance. Changes there impact most businesses.
ec.europa.eu/info/brexit/br…
ec.europa.eu/info/brexit/br…
12/ Step 2: Make sure your partners, suppliers and impacted clients are reading them too.
The UK and EU are so integrated it's almost inevitable your business will be impacted somewhere.
The UK and EU are so integrated it's almost inevitable your business will be impacted somewhere.
13/ Step 3: Take what steps you can.
Many of the regulatory barriers described amount to 'You will no longer be able to do X without a document or representative in the EU 27'.
On Brexit Day 1, the EU bureaucracy could be overwhelmed with such requests. Get in now.
Many of the regulatory barriers described amount to 'You will no longer be able to do X without a document or representative in the EU 27'.
On Brexit Day 1, the EU bureaucracy could be overwhelmed with such requests. Get in now.
14/ Step 4: Talk to your government.
I say this as a former government official: The public service does not understand the intricacies and practicalities of your business nearly as well as you do.
There may well be crippling problems they're not aware and aren't working on.
I say this as a former government official: The public service does not understand the intricacies and practicalities of your business nearly as well as you do.
There may well be crippling problems they're not aware and aren't working on.
15/ Step 5: Plan for disruption.
Chaos is always strongest when the things we take for granted stop working.
The complexity of Brexit and the UK-EU trade relationship makes it almost inevitable that SOMETHING will break, at least temporarily. Hope for the best, plan for chaos.
Chaos is always strongest when the things we take for granted stop working.
The complexity of Brexit and the UK-EU trade relationship makes it almost inevitable that SOMETHING will break, at least temporarily. Hope for the best, plan for chaos.
