I don't know much about how these estimates are done, but these effects are significant if true. 1/
When we model, say, Trump's tariffs, we estimate that the level of GDP declines by 0.6%. This means that eventually GDP is going to permanently be 0.6% lower than otherwise. The growth rate, however, doesn't permanently change 2/
In ten years, GDP will be ~1.5% lower and in twenty, GDP will be 2.9% lower, and so on. 3/